发表时间：2023.11.28     作者：Jingyi     来源：ShoelessCai     阅读：181

本篇系彭博新闻 11月28日 邮件推送，由百度翻译主翻译，Jingyi 作微调。

01 单词与评语

vasculature 脉管系统
charcoal 木炭
verdurous 绿色的
has been imperiled before 以前曾受到威胁
sluggish growth 增长缓慢
waning 减弱
funk 惊恐，沮丧

这篇文章总的显示美国华尔街在释放流动性，各种经济指标并未显示强势增长。值得一提的是，美元兑人民币目前是 7.15元 / 美刀，自从贸易战之后，美元始终处于较为坚挺的价格。

然而，我们也呼吁更加健康的经济发展。

关于内需方面，本站暂无新观点，如果一定要消费的话，鼓励聚焦于再生产产品的购买，加速国内经济流通。例如，ShoelessCai 的消费支出聚焦于服务器租金、搭建的各种软件服务，其实关于云上服务，更多的是买时间。供小微企业参考这类消费观点。

02 译文

每年的这个时候，投资者的收件箱里都充斥着 华尔街经济学家对未来一年世界表现的预测。这一季的内容包括天气和儿童睡前故事，这些故事似乎已成为必读书目。

安永咨询公司首席经济学家Gregory Daco警告称，秋天的微风将变成美国经济的冬季寒意。以布鲁斯·卡斯曼（Bruce Kasman）为首的摩根大通（JPMorgan）经济学家表示，金发姑娘（Goldilocks）提出的既不太热也不太冷的经济理由是成立的，但他们也警告要“煮青蛙”。巴克莱银行（Barclays）和牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）预计会出现“软着陆”（不要与软着陆混淆），而高盛（Goldman Sachs）则以“艰难的部分已经结束”为主题。摩根士丹利对《最后一英里》发出警告。美国银行称2024年为“登陆年”。

无论结果如何，凝视水晶球都需要极大的谦逊。就在12个月前，对美国经济衰退的预测还很普遍，市场还押注美联储现在会降低利率。相反，美国消费者拒绝让步意味着许多分析师正试图忘记这些预测。

美好时光能持续多久是个悬而未决的问题。美国就业增长放缓，10月份失业率升至3.9%的近两年高点。家得宝股份有限公司（HomeDepot Inc.）正在发出信号，表明在大街上的支出正在减少。全球形势同样喜忧参半，因为中国正在经历房地产恐慌，而德国则被疲软的制造业所困扰，这可能意味着另一场衰退。

就目前而言，今年的结局与预期的一样好。购物者在10月份放松了支出，通货膨胀继续回落，这两个因素都是美联储试图实现软着陆的核心组成部分。但2023年最大的教训是，预测不一定与表现相关。值得注意的是，美联储也曾预测今年将出现衰退。

摩根大通的经济学家表示：“我们的基线‘煮青蛙’叙事认为，增长缓慢，但核心通胀疲软，迫使央行行长保持限制性立场。”。

通俗地说，这意味着现在宣布通货膨胀恢复控制和利率下降还为时过早。2024年仍然未知--Enda Curran，彭博商业周刊。



Andrew Zaleski在下一期《商业周刊》上写道，世界香蕉供应以前曾受到威胁。但几年前，当香蕉科学家费尔南多·加西亚·巴斯蒂达斯（Fernando García-Bastidas）在Instagram上以@drbananagarcia的名字拥有粉丝时，他知道这是个坏消息：

2019年7月，García-Bastidas通过WhatsApp收到了哥伦比亚东北部La Guajira的一名种植园农民的求救信号，该地区是该国主要的香蕉种植区之一。健康的香蕉叶是深绿色的；照片中的那些比绿色更黄，它们的边缘被烧焦的纸的木炭色破坏了。“我唯一想的，”他回忆道，“就是‘我希望不要，我希望不要。’ ”

一周后，他从荷兰飞往哥伦比亚，前往种植园。他穿着适合外科医生的防护服和靴子，艰难地走进了田地。随着裤腿的每一次嗖嗖声，咒语都在他的脑海中回响：“我希望不要，我希望不要。”

然而，

很快，加西亚-巴斯蒂达斯看到了下垂的淡黄色植物。他小心翼翼地剥开一株植物的假茎——外行可能会认为是树干——直到他看到黑线垂直穿过将水输送到生长中的香蕉的脉管系统。“当我看到它时，”他回忆道，“我说，‘啊，该死。这是镰刀菌。’” ”

政府对这一发现的重视程度如何？

这种可能性是如此惊人，以至于加西亚-巴斯蒂达斯在哥伦比亚度过的两周里，他被指派了一名搬运工，并被封锁在酒店里。“我不能和任何人说话，甚至连我的家人都不能，”他说。他在波哥大的一个实验室进行的测试似乎证实了他的评估。一个月后，在仔细检查了哥伦比亚政府送回荷兰的样本后，GarcíA-Bastidas确信：香蕉的死神已经到来。

03 原文

It’s the time of year when investor inboxes are flooded with predictions from Wall Street economists on how the world will perform in the year ahead. This season’s crop includes references to the weather and a children’s bedtime story that appears to have become obligatory reading.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at consultancy EY, is warning that the autumn breeze will turn into a winter chill for the US economy. JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman say the Goldilocks case for an economy that is neither too hot nor too cold holds up—but they’re also warning about “boiling the frog.” Barclays and Oxford Economics are projecting “soft-ish” landings (not to be confused with a soft landing), while Goldman Sachs has gone with the theme that “The Hard Part is Over.” Morgan Stanley is warning about “The Last Mile.” Bank of America is calling 2024 “The Year of the Landing.”

However it all plays out, gazing into a crystal ball requires a significant dose of humility. It was only 12 months ago that forecasts for a US recession were widespread and markets had bet that the Federal Reserve would be lowering interest rates by now. Instead, the American consumer’s refusal to bend means many analysts are trying to forget those forecasts.

How long the good times last is an open question. US job growth is slowing and the unemployment rate in October rose to an almost two-year high of 3.9%. Consumer giants such as Lowe’s Cos. and Home Depot Inc. are signaling that spending on Main Street is waning. The global picture is equally mixed as China grinds through a real estate funk and Germany is dogged by weak manufacturing that likely means another recession.

For now, the year is ending on as good a note as could be expected. Shoppers eased up their spending in October and inflation continues to retreat, both core components of the soft landing the Fed is trying to pull off. But the biggest lesson from 2023 is that projections don’t necessarily correlate with performance. It’s worth noting that the Fed, too, had been forecasting a recession for this year.

“Our baseline ‘boil the frog’ narrative sees sluggish growth but sticky core inflation forcing central bankers to maintain restrictive stances,” according to JPMorgan’s economists.

In plain English, that means it’s too soon to declare inflation is back under control and interest rates will come down. The year 2024 remains, as yet, unknown. —Enda Curran, Bloomberg Businessweek

---

The world’s banana supply, writes Andrew Zaleski for the next issue of Businessweek, has been imperiled before. But when Fernando García-Bastidas, a banana scientist who has an Instagram following under the name @drbananagarcia, got wind of an issue a few years ago, he knew it was bad news:

In July 2019, García-Bastidas received an SOS over WhatsApp from a plantation farmer in La Guajira, in northeast Colombia, one of the country’s main banana-growing regions. Healthy banana leaves are deeply verdurous; the ones in the pictures were more yellow than green, and their edges were marred by the charcoal color of singed paper. “The only thing I was thinking,” he remembers, “is ‘I hope not, I hope not, I hope not.’ ”

A week later he flew from the Netherlands to Colombia and headed for the plantation. Donning a protective suit and boots befitting a surgeon, he trudged into the field. With each whoosh of his pant legs, the mantra reverberated in his mind: “I hope not, I hope not, I hope not.”

Unfortunately:

Soon, García-Bastidas saw drooped and flaxen plants. Carefully, he peeled back layers of one plant’s pseudostem—what laypeople might consider the trunk—until he saw black lines running vertically through the vasculature that shuttles water to growing bananas. “When I saw it,” he recalls, “I said, ‘Ah, shit. This is Fusarium.’ ”

How seriously did the government take this discover?

The possibility was so alarming that for the two weeks García-Bastidas spent in Colombia, he was assigned a handler and placed on lockdown in his hotel. “I couldn’t talk to anybody, not even my family,” he says. A test he conducted at a lab in Bogotá appeared to confirm his assessment. A month later, after double-checking samples sent back to the Netherlands with him by the Colombian government, García-Bastidas knew for sure: The Grim Reaper of bananas had arrived.

长按/扫码，有您的支持，我们会更加努力！