Javier Milei Photographer: Juan Mabromata/Getty Images
Argentina’s new president
02 译文
对于大多数美国消费者和投资者来说，本周出现了一些头条新闻，从即将到来的（可能不太遥远的）降息，到油价下跌和抵押贷款利率降至7%以下。通货膨胀正显示出持续缓解的迹象，给贫困家庭一点喘息的空间，现在预计明年将恢复到2%的目标附近。在经历了一代人以来最剧烈的加息之后，美联储很可能已经为这个世界上最大的经济体设计了一个软着陆，在没有大量失业或经济衰退的情况下抑制了价格飙升。央行甚至预计明年将降息，这一举措使从全球股票到美国国债再到公司债券的大部分商品都出现了令人兴奋的上涨。
ShoelessCai 评注：利率在缩减，还涉及按揭贷款的的利率。通货膨胀率上扬，对于已有资产者是利好消息，预期回到 2%。号称本世纪最陡峭的利率变化，联邦储备可能会出手缓解硬着陆，聚焦于就业。央行试图抑制利率上扬。
euphoric 兴高采烈地
euphoric upswing 令人兴奋地上扬
pinched household 贫困家庭
在欧洲，央行政策制定者采取了更加谨慎的基调，尽管通胀有所回落，但欧元区经济仍在疲软。然后是中国，那里的经济仍然受到需求疲软和持续的房地产危机的困扰。回到美国，尽管美联储的预测给许多市场带来了冲击，但过去几年的紧缩可能会在一些地方挥之不去。以住房为例，多年的廉价抵押贷款使数百万千禧一代能够在这里买房。“随着Z世代希望在未来几年购买他们的新房，他们将面临高利率和高价格，”彭博资讯的Allison Schrager写道。“房地产市场可能还需要几年时间才能重新负担得起。”
ShoelessCai 评注：欧洲中央银行显得更加谨慎，随着通胀衰退，经济体其实是变弱的。中国主要问题需求端较弱，持续资产危机。美国的情况，按揭这类工具使得千禧一代能买房，但是未来也面临着价格和利率同时上扬的风险。重新有能力买房之前，可能还有好几年。这里主要指的是住房可能上扬。
美国总统乔·拜登警告以色列，它“开始失去”盟友的支持，称在加沙地带造成数千平民死亡的轰炸行动有时是“不分青红皂白的”。美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文前往以色列，敦促总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在10月7日哈马斯袭击引发两个多月的战争后，转向“低强度行动”。事实上，美国和世界大多数国家寻求的结局是难以捉摸的“两国解决方案”，内塔尼亚胡在其整个政治生涯中都在积极反对这一目标，甚至以色列反对派目前也反对这一点。工党主席Isaac Herzog暂时排除了两个州的可能性，他说：“我的国家正处于创伤之中。”
ShoelessCai 评注：反对以色列版的一国两制。
elusive 难以捉摸
美国众议院的共和党人投票决定，在没有任何不当行为证据的情况下，正式授权对拜登进行弹劾调查。民主党人认为，这一前所未有的举动是由两次被弹劾的唐纳德·特朗普推动的，目的是在选举年到来之前搅乱局面。这位共和党领先者威胁说，如果他回到白宫，他将滥用权力并报复对手，他将面临四项重罪起诉，其中任何一项都可能在定罪后入狱。尽管如此，根据彭博新闻社/晨间咨询公司的一项民意调查，特朗普在必须获胜的密歇根州领先于拜登，并在将决定2024年总统大选的所有七个摇摆州的月度跟踪民意调查中领先。
impeachment inquiry 弹劾质询
contend the unprecedented move 执行前所未有的举动
abuse power and retaliate against opponents 滥用权力并报复对手
retaliate = revenge 报复
felony prosecutions 重罪起诉
阿根廷新总统可能已经收回了一些更激进的言论，但他仍计划对该国陷入困境的经济进行“休克疗法”。极右翼自由主义者哈维尔·米利再次承诺最终废除阿根廷比索（并将其价值削减近一半），以实现最终的美元化。随着年通货膨胀率飙升至160%以上，他的政府承诺大幅削减开支，并减少对能源和交通的补贴。但米利政府也表示，将先发制人，遏制反对紧缩措施的抗议活动，这可能会让他回到竞选活动中的反民主立场。然而到目前为止，他的计划受到了华尔街和普通阿根廷人的好评。
ShoelessCai 评注：阿根廷比索下降接近一半，文章观点认为，阿根廷可能会美元化，也解释了美元近几年持续坚挺的原因。阿根廷现行政府对外宣称，激进的支出缩减，减少能源及交通出行补贴。华尔街表示支持。
radical rhetoric 激进的言论，名词作动词
beleaguered economy 陷入困境的经济，相互影响的经济。
Far-right libertarian 极右翼
galloping past 160% 飙升 160%
austerity measures 紧缩的措施
preemptively to curb 先发制人地遏制
一个新的财富中心正受到从阿达尼家族到雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）等亿万富翁的广泛欢迎：阿布扎比酋长国摩天大楼林立。今年，数十名高净值人士在该市的国际金融中心设立了专用汽车。与此同时，在波士顿，一位患有痴呆症的摩根大通客户在其5000万美元财富流失后起诉该银行。花旗集团提出，如果一些员工同意离职，将提前支付部分奖金。
ShoelessCai 评注：私人资本设置SPV，作为 International Financial Center。摩根大通银行处理客户起诉，认为一位客户因其存款损失而起诉。花旗出奖金让员工离职。
emirate 酋长国
with dementia 痴呆症 de + mental 痴呆
01 原文
For most US consumers and investors, this week saw some banner headlines, from interest-rate cuts on the (possibly not-too-distant) horizon, to lower gas prices and a dip in mortgage rates below 7%. Inflation is showing continued signs of easing, giving pinched households a little breathing room, and it’s now forecast to return near its 2% target next year. After the steepest interest-rate hikes in a generation, the Federal Reserve may well have engineered a soft landing for the world’s largest economy, tamping down price surges without big job losses or a downturn. The central bank even projected rate cuts next year, a move that sent most everything—from global stocks to Treasuries to corporate bonds—on a euphoric upswing.
In Europe, central bank policymakers have struck a more cautious tone, with the euro-zone’s economy weakening even as inflation recedes. Then there’s China, where its economy remains dogged by weak demand and a continuing property crisis. And back in America, even as the Fed’s predictions gave a jolt to many markets, the squeeze from the past few years may linger in some places. Take, for example, the housing space, where years of cheap mortgages enabled millions of millennials to buy homes. “As Gen Z looks to buy their starter homes in the next few years, they will face both high rates and high prices,” writes Allison Schrager for Bloomberg Opinion. “It may be years before the housing market is affordable again.”
US President Joe Biden warned Israel that it’s “starting to lose” the support of its allies, saying the bombing campaign that’s killed thousands of civilians in the Gaza Strip has been at times “indiscriminate.” US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan traveled to Israel to urge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to shift to “lower-intensity operations” following more than two months of war triggered by the Oct.7 Hamas attack. Indeed, the endgame sought by the US and most of the world is the elusive “two-state solution,” a goal Netanyahu has actively worked against his entire political life, and something even Israel’s opposition currently opposes. President Isaac Herzog of the Labor Party ruled out two states for now, saying “my nation is in trauma.”
Republicans in the US House of Representatives voted to formally authorize an impeachment inquiry into Biden without any evidence of wrongdoing. Democrats contend the unprecedented move is being driven by a twice-impeached Donald Trump in an effort to muddy the waters ahead of an election year. The Republican frontrunner, who has threatened to abuse power and retaliate against opponents if he returns to the White House, faces four felony prosecutions, any one of which could land him in prison upon conviction. Nevertheless, Trump has pulled ahead of Biden in must-win Michigan, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, and leads in the monthly tracking poll of all seven swing states that will decide the 2024 presidential election.
Argentina’s new president might have dialed back some of his more radical rhetoric, but he still plans “shock therapy” to the country’s beleaguered economy. Far-right libertarian Javier Milei recommitted to eventually scrapping the Argentine peso (and slashed its value by nearly half) with an aim of eventual dollarization. With annual inflation galloping past 160%, his government pledged aggressive spending cuts and reduced subsidies for energy and transportation. But in a potential return to the anti-democratic stances of his campaign, Milei’s government also said it will move preemptively to curb protests against austerity measures. So far though, his plan has been well received by both Wall Street and regular Argentines.
A new wealth hub is becoming wildly popular with billionaires from the Adani family to Ray Dalio: the skyscraper-studded emirate of Abu Dhabi. Dozens of high-net-worth individuals have set up special purpose vehicles in the city’s international financial center this year. Meanwhile in Boston, a JPMorgan client dealing with dementia is suing the bank after his $50 million fortune slipped away. And Citigroup is offering to pay some staffers a portion of their bonuses early if they agree to leave.
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