发表时间：2024.01.14     作者：Bloomberg     来源：ShoelessCai     阅读：142

本篇主要由百度翻译完成翻译 Jingyi 会度通篇部分意思进行校对，或者修改为更加合适的表达。

01 译文

* 随着红海冲突的升级，美国和英国对也门发动了空袭。

* 开业当天，数万人在好市多位于深圳的最新中国分店外排队。

* 1.2万亿美元的美国旅游业落后，在18个全球目的地中排名倒数第二。

Banks Recently

摩根大通变得更大了。我们早就知道。但要大多少呢？净利息收入是华尔街密切关注的一个数字，显示了贷款的收入。摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase&Co.）2023年的900亿美元总额比其最接近的竞争对手美国银行（Bank of America Corp.）多出约300亿美元，甚至比富国银行（Wells Fargo & Co.）还多。

摩根大通最令人震惊的统计数据是其盈利能力。让我们来考虑有形普通股的回报率，这是另一个备受关注的指标。全年来看，摩根大通在2023年的业绩高达21%。它在大银行中最接近的竞争对手，美国银行和摩根士丹利，要么已经达到，要么预计将达到13%左右。



在收购第一共和国银行的帮助下，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）正试图在2024年将门槛提高得更高，他为此投入了更多资金。过去一年，摩根大通的员工人数超过了30万，该行可能会继续增长，而其他许多银行则在萎缩。

花旗集团确认了今年裁员数万人的计划。去年年底，员工人数约为24万人，但该行周五告诉投资者，中期内（据我所知，约为2026年），员工人数将达到18万人（裁撤6万人）。这将使华尔街第二大雇主的地位下降，仅次于美国银行和富国银行，这是另一个引人注目的转折。

通常，在季度结束时阅读大银行的演示文稿是非常乏善可陈的。但随着经济的变化，最大的银行、投资者和企业的战略也在变化。每个员工都应该留出一部分喝茶的午休时间，去阅读财务极度的财务报告，来了解他们的 CEO 会把钱花在哪里 —— 特别是因为这些银行，甚至是 JPMorgan 花得都比华尔街分析师预测的多。

Dimon 在最初对投资者的讲话中仍然非常谨慎，他表示，有“前所未有的力量”可能会破坏原本具有弹性的经济格局。以下是他最近的风险：

大量的政府赤字支出和过去的刺激措施推动了经济的发展。由于绿色经济、全球供应链的重组、军费开支的增加和医疗保健成本的上升，也持续需要增加支出。这可能导致通货膨胀更加有粘性（stickier），利率高于市场预期。除此之外，还有许多下行风险值得关注。量化紧缩（Quantitative tightening）每年从系统中消耗（draining）9000多亿美元的流动性，我们从未见过一个完整的紧缩周期。乌克兰和中东正在进行的战争除了造成可怕的人力成本外，还有可能破坏能源和粮食市场、移民、军事和经济关系。这些重要的、有点前所未有的力量使我们保持谨慎。尽管我们抱着最好的希望，但过去一年表明了为什么我们必须为任何环境做好准备。

贝莱德股份有限公司（BlackRock Inc.）今天上午也公布了全年业绩，资产再次超过10万亿美元，尽管仍略低于2021年的峰值。裁员也悬而未决。但前方有一条新的道路：这家大型资产管理公司同意以约125亿美元的价格收购私人投资巨头Global Infrastructure Partners，为自己增加1000亿美元的资产，并推动这家以场内交易的基金和被动投资著称的公司进行更多的另类投资。预计竞争对手全年都会达成类似的交易。

单词

closely watched number on Wall Street 华尔街密切关注的数字

most stunning statistic is its profitability 最令人震惊统计数据，是盈利能力

return on tangible common equity 有形的普通股回报

whopping 21% 高达 21%

have either come in at or are expected to be about 13% 要么已经达到，要么预计将达到13%左右

That would drop the second-largest employer on Wall Street 这会使得第二大雇主的地位下降

also an ongoing need for increased spending 也会持续增加支出

Job cuts are pending 裁员也未落实

The Next Big Risk

财务主管的工作是评估未知情况。因此，我们每年两次去找行业巨头，请他们展望10年，点亮其他人所忽略的角度。拉扎德总裁 雷·麦奎尔 （Ray McGuire） 认为，一个令人担忧的问题是美国梦。他说，教育投资的失败正在侵蚀该国的竞争动力：

我们正在创造一个永久的下层阶级。过去，教育为我们提供了实现美国梦的机会。今天，它是如此的分层（stratified），以至于我们很大一部分人口永远不会意识到这一点……今天的文盲反映了教育界领导人的可悲失败。危机就在今天。因此，我们需要采取紧急行动。

TCW 的首席执行官 Katie Koch 看到了长寿的风险。由于令人兴奋的技术，人们的寿命越来越长，但在没有养老金的情况下支付额外的退休年限将很困难。此外，她认为储蓄者现有投资的范围（the universe of existing investments）还不够：

就在这种负担转移到个人身上的时刻，我们已经看到并将继续看到，一些最具吸引力的创收资产从公共市场转移到私人市场。因此，有相当多的挑战 …… 如果我们看看美国的公开股票市场，现在的上市公司比20年前减少了50%。我认为我们正处于固定收益市场被打乱的早期阶段。我们已经在私人信贷的兴起中看到了这一点。

亿万富翁 Wes Edens 认为，投资者没有考虑到更多地缘政治动荡的风险，即并未为该风险定价。他告诉我：“利率上升的风险，人们没有考虑到他们应该考虑到的程度。地缘政治风险实际上会增加这一风险。”

你可以在这里找到完整的故事，再加上彭博电视台半小时的节目，在那里你可以听到这些行业领袖的声音。明年，该项目将进入第五个年头，所以我们将开始回头看看所有这些风险是如何产生的--Sonali Basak，彭博电视台全球财经记者。

单词

access the unknown 评估未知情况

titans of industry 行业巨头

ask them to look 10 years out 邀请他们展望未来 10 年

abject failure 可悲失败

sees longevity risk 见证了长寿的风险

at the very moment 当…时候

see a migration of ... from A to B 看到…从A转移到B

see a migration of some of the most attractive income-producing assets from public to private markets 最具吸引力的创收资产从公共市场转移到私人市场

…… 50% less listed companies now than there were 20 years ago 比 20 年前少了 50%

geopolitical tumult 地缘政治动荡

panned out 结果

文章末了，我放几段自己工作的总结。简言之就一句话，知识是现代人的“枪杆子”，你敢不学习吗？

02 原文

Must-Reads

1. The US and UK launched airstrikes against Yemen as the conflict in the Red Sea escalates.

2. Tens of thousands of people lined up outside Costco’s newest China outlet in Shenzhen on opening day.

3. The $1.2 trillion US travel industry is lagging, ranking second to last among 18 global destinations.

JPMorgan got bigger. We knew that. But how much bigger? Net interest income is a closely watched number on Wall Street, showing how much money is being made on lending. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s $90 billion total for 2023 is roughly $30 billion more than its closest competitor, Bank of America Corp.—and even more than that for Wells Fargo & Co.

JPMorgan’s most stunning statistic is its profitability. Let’s consider the return on tangible common equity, another closely watched metric. For the full year, JPMorgan’s was a whopping 21% for 2023. Its closest rivals among the big banks, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, have either come in at or are expected to be about 13%.

Helped by the acquisition of First Republic Bank, JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon is trying to raise the bar even higher in 2024, and he’s spending more to do so. The number of employees at JPMorgan surpassed 300,000 in the past year—and the bank may keep growing while many others are shrinking.

Citigroup confirmed its plan to cut tens of thousands of jobs this year. Staffing stood at about 240,000 at the end of last year, but the bank told investors on Friday that its headcount will be 180,000 over the medium term (which I understand to be around 2026). That would drop the second-largest employer on Wall Street below Bank of America and Wells Fargo, another remarkable turn of events.

Usually, reading through the big bank presentations when the quarter ends is fairly boring. But as the economy changes, so does strategy for the biggest banks, investors and corporations. Every employee should be reading the tea leaves this earnings season on where CEOs are allocating dollars—especially because, in the most recent quarter, most of these banks (even JPMorgan!) have spent more than Wall Street analysts expected.

Usually, reading through the big bank presentations when the quarter ends is fairly boring. But as the economy changes, so does strategy for the biggest banks, investors and corporations. Every employee should be reading the tea leaves this earnings season on where CEOs are allocating dollars—especially because, in the most recent quarter, most of these banks (even JPMorgan!) have spent more than Wall Street analysts expected.

Dimon still had a large note of caution in his initial remarks to investors, saying there are “unprecedented forces” that could upset what’s an otherwise resilient economic landscape. Here are his most recent risks:

The economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus. There is also an ongoing need for increased spending due to the green economy, the restructuring of global supply chains, higher military spending and rising health-care costs. This may lead inflation to be stickier and rates to be higher than markets expect. On top of this, there are a number of downside risks to watch. Quantitative tightening is draining over $900 billion of liquidity from the system annually, and we have never seen a full cycle of tightening. And the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have the potential to disrupt energy and food markets, migration, and military and economic relationships, in addition to their dreadful human cost. These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious. While we hope for the best, the past year demonstrated why we must be prepared for any environment.

Over at BlackRock Inc., which also reported full year results this morning, assets have risen past $10 trillion once again, though that’s still a little lower than the 2021 peak. Job cuts are pending, too. But there’s a new path ahead: The giant asset manager agreed to buy private investment giant Global Infrastructure Partners for about $12.5 billion, adding $100 billion in assets and pushing the firm known for exchange-traded funds and passive investing into more alternative investments. Expect rivals to make similar deals throughout the year.

A finance executive’s job is to assess the unknown. So twice a year, we go to titans of industry and ask them to look 10 years out and shine a light on what others are missing. Ray McGuire, the president of Lazard, believes one big concern is the American Dream. He says the failure to invest in education is eroding the country’s competitive dynamics:

We’re creating a permanent underclass. It used to be that education afforded us the opportunity to realize the American Dream. Today it’s so stratified that a significant percentage of our population will never realize it. … Illiteracy today reflects the abject failure of leaders in the educational world. The crisis is today. And so we need to be urgent.

Katie Koch, the CEO of TCW, sees longevity risk. People are living longer, because of exciting technologies, but paying for those extra retirement years without a pension will be difficult. What’s more, she thinks the universe of existing investments for savers isn’t adequate:

At the very moment when that burden has transferred to individuals, we’ve seen and will continue to see a migration of some of the most attractive income-producing assets from public to private markets. So there are quite a number of challenges. … If we look at the US public equity market, there are 50% less listed companies now than there were 20 years ago. And I think we are at the very early stages of fixed income being disrupted. We’ve seen that in the rise of private credit.

Billionaire Wes Edens thinks investors aren’t pricing in the risks of more geopolitical tumult. He tells me: “The risk of higher interest rates is one that people don’t think about as much as they should. Geopolitical risk can actually add to that.”

You can find the full story here, plus the half-hour show for Bloomberg Television, where you can hear for yourself from each of these industry leaders. Next year, the project will be in its fifth year, so we’ll start to go back to see how all of these risks have panned out. —Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Television’s global finance correspondent.

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