发表时间：2024.01.21     作者：Jingyi     来源：ShoelessCai     阅读：182

01 译文

达沃斯上空的云彩

Akshat Rathi

对更多极端天气事件的预期，以及特朗普当选美国总统的可能性，为瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛应对气候变化的讨论定下了基调。

12月在迪拜举行的第28届联合国气候变化大会上，所有国家都同意放弃化石燃料，会议的结果本应为富人和权贵讨论减少温室气体排放的前景提供积极的条件。然而，包括美国、墨西哥和印度尼西亚在内的大型经济体潜在的领导层变动，让企业老板们担心，他们可能会失去关键政策支持，针对能源双重打击的政策。

哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心主任Jason Bordoff表示：“2024年将是气候行动异常重要的一年。”。“到今年年底，随着另一盛产石油的国家举行的全球气候大会，以及许多全国选举的结果，我们将了解气候合作是否正在破裂。”

这一担忧（关于气候合作是否破裂），还混杂进最近荷兰、阿根廷领导人选举中，这些国家纷纷质疑应对全球变暖所采取的行动，甚至像英国这类此前积极应对气候变化的国家，也出现了倒退。即便第 28 届全球气候大会如往常一般热闹，像沙特阿拉伯这类石油国，始终试图重回他们签署的、雄心勃勃的措施清单上（注，指沙特在气候问题上积极且激进，但其他国家似乎合作意愿在消退）。

这可能会使得未来两场气候会议产生分歧（create divisions），分别是 11 月在阿塞拜疆（Azerbaijan）一场，以及明年在巴西举行的气候峰会。在达沃斯的一次采访中，巴西环境部长 （Environment Minster） Marina Silva 反驳了沙特的建议（push back on the Saudi suggestions），称这些目标是基于坚实的科学，“不是一种解释”（based on solid science and are 'not a matter of interpretation'）。

有一些充满希望的迹象。尽管2023年面临挑战，但世界在清洁能源方面的支出 1.7万亿美元，创造了记录。这超过了投资于化石燃料的1.1万亿美元。在中国大规模部署太阳能和电动汽车，占了上述支出的很大一部分（for a large portion of that spend），而且中国似乎致力于大规模建设。

根据气候技术VC的数据，2023年，早期气候技术的风险投资下降了约30%，但数字并没有看起来那么糟糕。Energy Impact Partners创始人Hans Kobler表示，2021年和2022年的投资对新的气候技术造成了太多炒作。“当事情好的时候，人们会过于兴奋。当事情不好的时候。人们会过于沮丧。”Kobler 说，“我们回到了现实。”

今年还有其他亮点（other shiny）。在达沃斯，人们围绕瑞士军刀式的气候解决方案进行了大量对话（plenty of conversations around ...），这些解决方案的好处不仅仅（beyond just）是减少温室气体。恢复土地可以提高农业产量和固碳。在城市部署限制老化汽车的政策可以减少化石燃料消耗，减少空气污染。

贝恩（Bain）公司可持续发展实践创始人 Jenny Davis Peccoud 表示：“从长远来看，正是这些具有多重利益的故事，将有助于支持这些解决方案。”。

set the tone for discussions on 关于…讨论的基调
a positive outlook for 关于…的积极预期
double down on 关于…双重打击
unusually consequential year 异常重要的一年
whether climate cooperation is breaking down or not 气候合作是否正在破裂
backsliding in UK 英国出现了倒退
was hailed as historic 如往常一般热闹
petrostate 石油国
ambitious steps they signed up to 他们签署的雄心勃勃的措施
create divisions 产生分歧
push back on the Saudi suggestions 反驳了沙特的意见
stating that 称……
There are some hopeful signs. 有一些充满希望的迹象。
spent a record $1.7 trillion 支付 1.7万亿美元，创造了历史
and it seems China is committed at building at a huge scale 而且中国似乎致力于大规模建设
suffered a decline in venture capital of about 30% 某些板块的风险投资减少了 30%
create too much hype 创造太多炒作
plenty of conversations around 大量围绕着…的对话
beyond just 不仅仅是
sequester carbon 固碳。 sequester 隔绝的

更多环保资讯

约翰内斯堡东南方向有90分钟车程，坐落着一个盛产煤炭的小镇。塞昆达合成燃料厂由世界上最大的煤基燃料制造商Sasol有限公司运营。其生产规模使南非的种族隔离政府得以规避石油进口制裁。它还使塞昆达成为世界上最大的单点温室气体排放国（含义，允许排放更多）。

现在，随着环境合规问题笼罩着该工厂，该公司也在努力实现2050年的净零排放目标，Sasol 别无选择，只能减少工厂的排放——这一过程几乎肯定会涉及到限制其部分运营。（减少排放）这件事遗留了巨大的问题，笼罩着这个与这家公司一起崛起的小镇，也笼罩着成千上万的与两者交织在一起的人们。



lies a town built on coal 盛产煤炭的小镇
Secunda 塞昆达
apartheid government 种族隔离的政府
circumvent sanctions 规避制裁
environmental compliance issues 环境合规问题

以后近距离

By Brian K. Sullivan

周五，纽约市、新泽西州北部和长岛部分地区可能积聚几英寸的雪，一场弱风暴席卷美国东部，取消了数百个航班。该地区已发布冬季天气预报，直至晚上7点。

虽然风暴的威力不是特别大，但它“影响了相当多的房地产，从爱荷华州一直到东海岸都有警告，”为彭博电台提供前景的Hometown Forecast Services的所有者Rob Carolan说。费城、特伦顿和特拉华州多佛之间的地区可能会出现最多的雪，雪高达4英寸（10厘米）。



在其他天气新闻中：

大寒：大平原大部分地区、中西部甚至南至密西西比州、佐治亚州和佛罗里达州都发布了风寒警告。美国国家气象局表示，预计佛罗里达州塔拉哈西的气温将降至29华氏度（1.67摄氏度），但风力将使气温降至15华氏度。北部的情况将更糟，预计圣路易斯周五的最低气温将达到5华氏度，风寒将使气温接近-15华氏度。

太平洋西北部：据PowerOutage.us报道，最近几天，俄勒冈州遭受了严重的冰风暴袭击，该地区仍有108000多名用户断电。

澳大利亚：澳大利亚气象局的预报员Miriam Bradbury说，北部地区遭受了严重的洪水袭击。她说，地区河流的洪水警报“在某些地方切断了道路和通道”。“随着降雨的持续，一些社区已经或将在未来几天内撤离。”

storm lumbers east across the US 风暴席卷美国东部
fair amount 相当多
ice storm pelted that area 冰雪风暴席卷该地区
evacuated 撤离

02 原文

The clouds over Davos

By Akshat Rathi

Expectations of more extreme-weather events, alongside the possibility of Donald Trump’s election as US president, set the tone for discussions on tackling climate change at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

The outcome at COP28 in Dubai in December, where all countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, should have provided a positive outlook for the rich and powerful to discuss the prospects of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. Yet, potential leadership changes in big economies, including the US, Mexico and Indonesia, made corporate bosses wary they may be losing crucial policy support for doubling down on the energy transition.

“2024 will be an unusually consequential year for climate action,” said Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “By the end of the year, with another COP concluding in a petrostate and the results of many national elections, we’ll have a sense of whether climate cooperation is breaking down or not.”

That fear is compounded by the recent election of leaders skeptical of action against global warming in the Netherlands and Argentina, and even backsliding in previously climate-forward countries such as the UK. And even though COP28 was hailed as historic, petrostates such as Saudi Arabia have been attempting to walk back on the list of ambitious steps they signed up to.

This is likely to create divisions between countries at the next two climate summits in Azerbaijan in November and Brazil next year. In an interview at Davos, Brazil’s Environment Minister Marina Silva pushed back on the Saudi suggestions, stating that the goals were based on solid science and are “not a matter of interpretation.”

There are some hopeful signs. Despite the challenges in 2023, the world spent a record $1.7 trillion on clean energy. This is more than the $1.1 trillion that was invested in fossil fuels. A massive deployment of solar and electric cars in China accounted for a large portion of that spend, and it seems China is committed at building at a huge scale.

Early stage climate technologies suffered a decline in venture capital of about 30% in 2023, according to Climate Tech VC, but the numbers aren’t as bad as they seem. Hans Kobler, founder of Energy Impact Partners, says investments in 2021 and 2022 had created too much hype in new climate technologies. “When things are good, people get too excited. When things are bad, people get too depressed,” said Kobler. “We are back to reality.”

There are other shiny, new things to get excited about this year. At Davos there were plenty of conversations around Swiss-army-knife-like climate solutions that have benefits beyond just reducing greenhouse gases. Restoring land can increase agricultural yield and sequester carbon. Deploying policies to limit aging cars in cities can reduce fossil-fuel consumption and reduce air pollution.

“It’s these kinds of stories of multiple benefits that will help support the solutions in the long run,” said Jenny Davis-Peccoud, founder of the sustainability practice at Bain & Company.

More from Green

A 90 minute drive southeast of Johannesburg lies a town built on coal. The Secunda synthetic fuel plant is run by Sasol Ltd., the world’s biggest fabricator of coal-based fuel. Its scale of production enabled South Africa’s apartheid government to circumvent oil import sanctions. It has also made Secunda the world’s largest single-point emitter of greenhouse gas.

Now, with environmental compliance issues hanging over the facility and the company staring down a net zero target of 2050, Sasol has no choice but to reduce the plant’s emissions — a process that will almost certainly involve curbing some of its operations. That has left a big question mark hanging over the town that rose with the company, and the thousands of people whose lives are entwined with both.

Weather watch

Weather watch

New York City, northern New Jersey and parts of Long Island will likely pick up a couple of inches of snow Friday as a weak storm lumbers east across the US canceling hundreds of flights. A winter weather advisory has been issued across the region until 7 p.m.

While the storm isn’t particularly powerful, it’s “affecting a fair amount of real estate, there are advisories up from Iowa all the way back to the East Coast,” said Rob Carolan, owner of Hometown Forecast Services, which provides outlooks for Bloomberg Radio. The area between Philadelphia, Trenton and Dover, Delaware will likely see the most snow with up to 4 inches (10 centimeters).



In other weather news:

Big chill: Wind chill advisories are up across the most of the Great Plains, Midwest and even as far south as Mississippi, Georgia and Florida. Tallahassee, Florida is forecast to drop as low as 29F (1.67C), but the wind will make it feel as cold as 15F degrees, the National Weather Service said. Conditions will be worse to the north, Friday’s low is forecast to reach 5F in St. Louis with wind chills making it feel closer to -15F.

Pacific Northwest: More than 108,000 customers in Oregon are still without power as severe ice storms pelted that area in recent days, according to PowerOutage.us.

Australia: The Northern Territories have been hit by heavy flooding, said Miriam Bradbury, a forecaster with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Flood warnings are up for regional rivers “that have, in some places, cut off roads and access routes,” she said. “A number of communities have been evacuated or will be evacuated over the coming days as rain continues to fall.”

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