发表时间：2024.09.16     作者：Jingyi     来源：Bloomberg     阅读：175

如果一个成年人被聚集在房间里的话，尴尬绝对占据主导。“许多人现在都更加焦虑了”Amber 这个人说到，她是 Single and City 创始人，这个组织是提倡速约会的，在奥斯汀和纽约。' ### @10=' 本文由 Jingyi 翻译完成。

译文

如果一个成年人被聚集在房间里的话，尴尬绝对占据主导。“许多人现在都更加焦虑了”Amber 这个人说到，她是 Single and City 创始人，这个组织是提倡速约会的，在奥斯汀和纽约。“他们不属于常规。他们忘了如何面对面地与人沟通。”

由于疫情，经济迅速下行。斯坦福报告说到，依据最近政府的调查数据，他们吹嘘结果，病毒也点燃了美国的后退，包括很多社交动物 —— 这些人（社交动物）长期徘徊，因为他们刚被注射疫苗。对于几百万人而言，约会和其他社交，不会再恢复成以前那样。效果其实不仅限于个人的、心理的，还有经济上的，甚至政治上的。

劳动力供给，包括需求和税收，都依赖于人口统计的变化，从第一季度开始(from first date)。快速约会，能够导致大家迅速聚集，结婚生子、买房买车，然后还有一些存款。“几乎所有更加严肃的关系，从这个灰区开始。”斯坦福社会学教授 Michael 说到。“但是这些初期的关系，非常脆弱，容易受影响，也容易崩溃。”

如果疫情袭来，Rosenfeld 重复开启一项调研，这项工作 2017 年干过，内容是找出更弱的关系。这些练习揭示了，几百万非正式关系，崩溃了，即便婚姻、同居在疫情期间能够扛过，但是他们比约会情侣被打扰得更多 —— 指示了一件事，20 个美国成年人中的 1 个，是计算时间的人。随着 2020 年单身人数猛增，面对面约会开始变得危险，Rosenfeld 又在 2022 年调查了，很惊讶地发现，尽管出版了许多疫苗，更多人还是单身，没有约会。与疫情期间比较，他估计多出 1330 万美国人，仍然单身，2022 年。

in-person 亲自
in-person dating 面对面约会

另一项最近数据显示，隐形的疤痕效应，关于疫情的。每一年，美国劳工局的统计数据，询问几千人，他们如何度过一天，搜集信息用于概要简编（compendium），成为美国人时间分配调查（the American Time Use Survey）。最近一项研究显示，2023 年成年人花更多时间独处，更少时间聊天以及面对面或者小组去练习事情，相较于 4 年之前而言。数据也显示美国人的社交情况，尚未反弹，这里指的是可测量的部分没反弹，追溯到 2022 年，甚至是 2021 年。比起创造暂时的打扰，疫情似乎加速了美国人十年期的下降，关于连接和社区。

compendium 书中的汇编、概要

许多商业依然通知他们的客户，会感到更加不友好。更少的约会以及社交外出，意味着即便全勤出动还交通拥堵（means traffic at full-service），能坐下来吃饭的餐馆，仍然没有回到疫情之前，依据国有餐厅联合会的数据，即便是针对其他食物供应的其他商业（模式），例如，外卖、外带、快餐、简餐（fast casual），持续上榜（keep hitting records）。酒吧、俱乐部，也很挣扎。美国人消耗的酒精量，这 25 年来缓慢上升着，但事实上酒保们提供的饮料的比例是减少的。美国去年，研究公司 IWSR 估计，85% 的酒精是在店里被出售，相较于其自营点，只出售了 15%。在饭店、酒吧、俱乐部的饮料，比例下降了 3 个点，自从 2017 年以来，是全球下降速度的一半。注：这里含义是，美国人更加喜欢喝酒。

convivial 性格、氛围欢乐友好的
fast casual 简餐
keep hitting records 持续上榜
on-premises venue 品牌的现场零售店

更长期关于“约会衰退”的结果，Rosenfeld 说到，即美国人持续推迟传统成年人的里程碑。自从 1980 年以来，自力更生人的比例，包括结婚的、有小孩的、30 岁前已经买房的，依然稳步下降。大多数的预测者假设，年轻的美国人，逐渐还是会完成上述事情的。关键是何时，这里的数据显示，官方数据估计，5 岁以下人群的数量，在 2020 年与 2023 年之间，依然下降到 88.9 万人，下降了几乎 5%。

原文

When single adults gather in a room these days, the awkwardness can be overwhelming. “A lot of people have more anxiety now,” says Amber Soletti, the founder of Single and the City, an organization that puts on speed-dating events in New York and Austin. “They’re out of practice. They’ve forgotten how to engage with people face-to-face.”

The economic downturn precipitated by the pandemic was mercifully brief. But a new Stanford University study, along with recent government survey data, bolster the conclusion that the virus also sparked a recession in Americans’ social lives—one that lingers years after most US adults were vaccinated. For millions, dating and other social activity never recovered, with effects that aren’t just personal and psychological but economic and perhaps even political.

The labor supply, housing demand and tax revenue all depend on demographic dynamics that begin with a first date. Casual dating can lead to moving in together, marriage, children, homeownership and joint savings accounts. “Almost all of the more serious relationships start in this gray area,” says Stanford sociology professor Michael Rosenfeld. “But those beginning relationships are more vulnerable to disruption and breakup.”

When Covid-19 hit, Rosenfeld reran a survey he had conducted in 2017 to measure those more casual ties. The exercise revealed that millions of informal relationships fell apart, even as married and cohabitating couples survived the pandemic largely intact. More disturbing than the size of this dating disruption—encompassing more than 1 out of every 20 US adults—was the timing. After the number of singles surged in 2020, when in-person dating was dangerous, Rosenfeld ran the survey again in 2022 and was surprised to find that despite the mass vaccine rollout, even more people were alone and not dating. Compared with before the pandemic, he estimates an extra 13.3 million Americans were single by 2022.

Other recent data show the invisible scars of Covid. Each year, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics asks thousands of people how they spend their days and aggregates the information into an annual compendium called the American Time Use Survey. The latest survey finds adults in 2023 spent far more time alone, and far less time chatting face-to-face and participating in group activities, than four years earlier. The data also show Americans’ social lives haven’t bounced back in a measurable way from 2022 or even 2021. Rather than creating a temporary disruption, Covid seems to have accelerated the US’s decades-long decline in connection and community.

Many businesses have already noticed their customers feeling less convivial. Fewer dates and social outings means traffic at full-service, sit-down restaurants still hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels, data from the National Restaurant Association show, even as business for other food service offerings—delivery, takeout, fast food and fast casual—keeps hitting records. Bars and nightclubs are also struggling. The amount of alcohol Americans consume has been slowly rising for 25 years, but a shrinking share of those drinks are being served by bartenders. In the US last year, research firm IWSR estimates, 85% of alcohol was purchased at a store, compared with 15% at an on-premises venue. This share of drinking at restaurants, bars and clubs has declined three points since 2017, and is half the global rate.

A longer-term consequence of the “dating recession,” Rosenfeld says, is that Americans continue to delay traditional adult milestones. Since the 1980s, the shares of those who live on their own, get married, have children or buy a home by age 30 have been dropping steadily. Most forecasters assume young Americans will eventually do those things. The question is when. Here’s one troubling stat: The Census Bureau estimates the population of children under 5 years old plunged 889,000 between 2020 and 2023, a decline of almost 5%.

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