Bloomberg | Bloomberg 口译

Dust Storm Romance

mantra 箴言，咒语

mutter 咕哝，低声细语

Cairo 开罗

Gusts 阵风

sizzle through 咝咝穿过

plume 流体力学专业用于，羽流

godzilla 哥斯拉

Tigris 底格里斯河

Euphrates 幼发拉底河

我从不羞愧地说，直至2011年，我关于沙尘暴的认知仍然是非常理想化的，无外乎是不是观看的《英国病人》中的场景中，Ralph Fiennes 和 Kristin Scott Thomas 的荒漠爱情故事，开着一辆破旧的吉普，在沙漠风动力下前进。

这是为什么那种毫无希望的浪漫使得我觉得兴奋，当沙尘暴降临埃及的时候，那时，我住在埃及。我记得当时我背出了咒语般的沙尘暴的埃及名称，也就是 Fiennes 在电影中低声说的那些：Aajej, Ghibli, Harmattan, Simoon, 以及埃及语命名的 Khamaseen。

所有兴奋都变成了失望，当沙尘暴让开罗的阵风，都变成了可以将我住的地方，刮成咝咝作响的。空气被沙尘粒子所填满，还伴有这座城市所看不见的污染，使得人更难呼吸。埃及灼热的太阳，成为了树和天空的影子（被沙子遮掩），城市的建筑和人们都接受了一种伤感，咖啡色的基调。沙漠似乎顷刻间无处不在，包括我的耳口鼻，而且在沙尘暴 Khamaseen 离开之后，还延续了很长时间。

我很确信，电影中的场景要好看多了。

沙尘暴，起源于强风掠过干旱地区，将沙子流线型地吹出几百甚至几千公里之外。撒哈拉是全球最大的沙漠，也是全球大气所致的沙尘暴最大的沙土来源。沙尘暴通常是间歇的、季节的，以及随着风的状况而变化。最近，一系列骇人的间歇沙尘暴，引起了人们的注意。

就是哥斯拉（沙尘暴名字），带着大片撒哈拉羽流，穿越大西洋，到达加勒比海，2020年6月时候。一年之后，撒哈拉的沙尘成为了阿尔卑斯山脉的橙色之雪。3月份的时候，被西班牙人成为 Camila，这个词来自于拉丁语，被译成“不透明又浓重的雾气”，将西班牙笼罩在令人厌烦的橙色基调之中。4月、5月的时候，沙尘暴如同毯子一般笼罩着中东，破坏空气质量，影响日常生活，受影响的国家包括伊朗、伊拉克、阿联酋。

“我们见证了一系列非正常沙尘暴，以及一系列非正常的紧张”Sara Basart 说，巴塞罗那沙漠中心区（the Barcelona Dust Regional Center）首席科学家说到，该组织融合了世界气象组织的调研，用以研究欧洲、北非和中东的沙漠及沙尘暴现象。“沙尘不再是公众健康所关注的问题，因为沙尘暴本身会使得一个区域的经济进入停滞状态，如果沙尘暴的集中程度达到一定限的话。”

伊拉克今年被9场沙尘暴席卷，影响了几乎所有社会活动，从学校的期末考试，大港口和机场的交通。大约3.5万人不得不因窒息而去医院就诊，导致至少3人死亡，依据国际健康管理局（Health Ministry）。在迪拜，学校取消了一周的户外活动。

今年，沙尘暴的强烈程度，以及仍然增加的频率，也引起人们关注一些，关于沙尘暴和气候变化之间的问题。

不像温度和降雨，对沙尘暴的测量尚在起步阶段，科学家们也只在2000年时候，有测量过沙尘暴相关参数。Basart 说。这意味着，想要有足够的自信判断，最近发生的沙尘暴是否会成为一个趋势，所需要的数据仍然是不够的。

诚然，已有证据表明气候变化确实是并且将会持续对这一现象产生影响。与全球气候变暖有关的干旱和沙漠化，会增加某些区域的沙子的量，依据欧盟关于土地观察机构 Copernicus 的结论。该机构引证某些结论研究结论，指向低频但高强度的撒哈拉间歇沙尘暴，与此同时，一篇论文在4月于《自然》发表，发现西地中海地区的间歇沙尘暴的频率和强度，在1948至2020年间有所增加。

一些证据显示其他方向，因为NASA科学家预测，海平面越高，温度本身会削弱大西洋风力或风速，导致非洲每年发生的沙尘羽流缩减至20000每年最低值，在之后的一个世纪。其他科学家关注，整个星球变暖，导致非洲某些区域的蒸发率上升，导致了所谓的“撒哈拉的绿色”，这一现象会减少沙尘的量，依据 Copernicus 所称。

最近发生的一系列沙尘暴，被归咎于北非及底格里斯河（Tigris）、幼发拉底河盆地（Euphrates basin）沿岸的强干旱现象。“这是完美的组合，风掠过表面和干旱的土地”Basart 说。

“但是沙尘暴仍然有社会及土地管理，这一敌人”她说，“某些区域不应该必然被阳光照射到（可避免），以及由于水源问题的管理疏漏”。

在伊拉克，数十年的武装争斗，导致了人们放弃了整个农业区域，这些耕地已然干旱，且成为沙尘的来源之一，她说。过去的两年，来自土耳其底格里斯河、幼发拉底河的水流在减少，与此同时，伊朗截断了所有进入伊拉克的支流，依据伊拉克政府官方宣称。

预测沙尘暴的能力在过去20年有所上升，以巴塞罗那为中心，几乎可以捕捉所有主要事件，先于事件发生的3-5天。感谢我们拥有由17个科学的模型所归集的每天的预测结果。然而，关于在地上搜集数据，仍然有许多工作需要做。巴塞罗那中心，只有两个测量站点，都部署在撒哈拉沙漠地区，沙特阿拉伯沙漠中心地带尚未建设，Basart说到。

“沙尘暴没有边界，我们必须从源头制止”Basart 说，“在伊拉克发生的（沙尘暴）会影响到科威特、卡塔尔，以及沙特阿拉伯。因此，我们在所有地方监控，以至于提升预测准确度。”

由 Khalid Al Ansary 和 Zainab Fattah 协助报导。

I am not ashamed to admit that, up until 2011, my idea of sand storms was rather idealized and based almost exclusively on watching time and time again how Ralph Fiennes and Kristin Scott Thomas fell in love inside a rusty jeep battered by desert winds in The English Patient.

That’s why the hopeless romantic in me got excited when dust storm season arrived in Egypt, where I was living at the time. I remember reciting almost as a mantra the Arabic names for the desert winds that Fiennes mutters in the movie: Aajej, Ghibli, Harmattan, Simoon, and added the Egyptian word for it — Khamaseen.

All that thrill turned into disappointment when the storm made it to Cairo. Gusts of wind sizzled through cracks on my apartment walls. The air filled with dust particles that, combined with the city’s infamous pollution, made it harder to breathe. Egypt’s burning sun became just a shadow in the sky and trees, buildings and even people adopted a sad, brown tone. The desert was suddenly everywhere, including my mouth, nose and ears — and it remained there long after the Khamaseen left.

It sure looked nicer in the movie.

Dust storms happen when strong winds sweep through dry areas, sending plumes of sand hundreds and even thousands of miles away. The Sahara, the world’s largest desert, is also the world’s largest source of atmospheric dust. While dust episodes tend to be seasonal and follow changes in wind conditions, a string of notorious episodes recently has resulted in increasing attention.

There was Godzilla, the massive Saharan plume that crossed the Atlantic and reached the Caribbean in June 2020. A year later, Saharan dust turned snow in the Alps orange. In March, an episode of what Spaniards call Calima — a word derived from Latin that translates as “opaque and dense fog” — covered Spain in a disturbing orange hue. In April and May, dust storms blanketed parts of the Middle East, worsening air quality and impacting daily life in countries including Iran, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.

“We are seeing an unusual number of sand storms, and of unusual intensity,” said Sara Basart, lead scientist at the Barcelona Dust Regional Center, which coordinates the World Meteorological Organization’s research into sand and dust storms in Europe, Northern Africa and the Middle East. “Dust is not just a matter of public health anymore — it can bring a region’s economic activity to a halt if concentrations are high enough.”

Iraq was hit by a total of nine dust storms this year that affected everything from schools’ final exams to traffic in ports and airports. Around 35,000 people had to go to hospitals suffering suffocation and at least three people died, according to the country’s Health Ministry. In Dubai, schools canceled outdoor activities for a week.

The intensity — as well as the increased frequency — of this year’s events has raised questions over the relationship between the storms and climate change.

Unlike temperature and rain, dust measurements are young — scientists only started to measure them in 2000, Basart said. That means there still isn’t enough data to say with confidence whether recent events amount to a trend.

Still, there are indications that climate change is and will continue to influence this phenomenon. Drought and desertification associated with global warming can increase the amount of dust over certain areas, according to the European Union’s Earth observation agency Copernicus. Research cited by the agency points to less frequent but more intense Saharan dust episodes, while a paper published in Nature in April found the amount of dust transport episodes in the western Mediterranean increased in frequency and intensity between 1948 and 2020.

Some evidence points to the other direction, with NASA scientists predicting that higher sea surface temperatures will weaken winds in the Atlantic and result in Africa’s annual dust plumes shrinking to a 20,000-year minimum over the next century. Other scientists have looked at how the warming of the planet could lead to higher evaporation rates in some parts of Africa, resulting in the so-called “greening of the Sahara,” which would lead to reduced amounts of dust, according to Copernicus.

The most recent string of sand storms has been attributed to intense drought in North Africa, as well as along the Tigris and Euphrates basins. “It’s the perfect combination — wind on the surface and dry land,” Basart said.

“But dust storms also have a social and land management component,” she said. “There are areas that shouldn’t necessarily be emitting and are because of poor management of water resources.”

In Iraq, decades of armed conflict have led to the abandonment of entire agricultural areas, which have dried up and become a source of dust, she said. In the past two years, flows from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers coming from Turkey have lowered, while Iran cut all branch rivers going into Iraq, according to Iraqi government statements.

Predicting dust storms has improved over the past two decades, with the center in Barcelona now catching all major events three to five days before they happen thanks to daily forecasts that combine 17 different scientific models. Still, a lot of work remains when it comes to gathering data on the ground — there are only two dust measuring stations in the whole of the Sahara desert and none in Saudi Arabia’s central desert, Basart said.

“Dust storms have no borders and we need to attack them at the source,” Basart said. “What happens in Iraq impacts Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, so we need monitoring everywhere so we can improve forecasts.”

— With assistance by Khalid Al Ansary, and Zainab Fattah