发表时间：2023.09.08     作者：Jingyi     来源：ShoelessCai     阅读：150

彭博：华尔街分析师言，美国期待经济软着陆

译文

华尔街最大的股市悲观主义者之一调回（dialed back 颇有讽刺之意）了对标准普尔500指数的悲观预测。法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）美国股票和衍生品策略主管Greg Boutle 曾预测，该基准将在今年年底达到3400点，比2022年下降11%。但本周，他投降了。Boutle将目标提高到4150，这一修正后的预测似乎反映了人们越来越期待美国经济将穿过针眼实现软着陆，或者至少避免今年的任何衰退。Boutle说，相反，他预计随着经济增长放缓和分析师降低对企业盈利的预测，股市将下跌 ——David E.Rovella

注：
1.capitulate 投降
词性辩义：capsulate 胶囊、太空舱
2.US economy will thread the needle of a soft landing 美国经济将穿过针眼实现软着陆

今天最该知道的事情

中国正在寻求扩大禁用 iPhone 范围。此外，中国方面继续排斥国外的技术，在周四的市场上，受到打击的不仅仅是苹果。

注：
1.Government-backed agency 政府支持机构
2.State company 国有银行
3.If Beijing goes ahead, 如果北京继续实施
4.Unprecedented blockade 前所未有的封锁
5.Years-long effort 多年的努力
6.The culmination of …的巅峰时刻

SK Hynix 已对华为最新手机中使用其芯片的情况展开调查，此前该设备的拆卸暴露了其内存和闪存（一些问题）。TechInsights表示，总部位于中国的华为Mate 60 Pro使用Hynix 的LPDDR5和NAND闪存，他为彭博新闻社负责该设备的拆卸工作。公司发言人周四表示，总部位于Icheon的 Hynix “自美国对华为实施限制以来，该公司不再与华为开展业务，关于这一问题，我们已开始调查，以了解更多细节”。

注：
1.A teardown of device 拆除设备
2.Conduct the teardown of 开展设备拆除工作
3.With regard to 关于…



据说，摩根大通正处于探索基于区块链的数字存款代币（digital deposit token）的早期阶段，以加快跨境支付和结算（cross-border payments and settlement）。存款代币是可转让的数字硬币，代表对商业银行的存款索赔（deposit claim against），是客户账户中存款的数字版本。这家美国资产规模最大的银行已经开发了大部分基础设施，这些基础设施主要用于支撑新支付形式。然而，除非该项目获得美国监管机构的批准，否则不打算创建代币。

注：
1.Digital deposit token 数字存款代币
2.Cross-border payments and settlement 跨境支付结算
3.Deposit claim against XX的存款索赔

美国抵押贷款利率连续从第二周下降。房地美周四在一份声明中表示，30年期固定贷款的平均利率从一周前的7.18%降至7.12%。抵押贷款利率在过去四周一直高于7%，自2022年初以来翻了一番多。借贷成本的飙升抑制了房屋销售，使许多购房者靠边站，挤压了他们的负担能力。

注：
1.For a second week in a row 从第二周开始下降
2.Stifle 扼杀，镇压

高盛前合伙人 Tom Connolly 和 Mike Koester 正将赌注押在华尔街最热门的角落之一，鉴于其下一步操作（for their next act）。这对总部位于纽约的二人共同创立了一家新公司 5C Investment Partners，旨在从蓬勃发展的私人信贷市场中站得一席之地。在私人信贷市场上，另类资产管理公司通过向公司提供数十亿美元的融资，越来越多地取代银行。Koester在周四的一次采访中表示：“在持续的市场混乱中，直接贷款发挥着非常重要的作用。”他指的是，自2008年以来，监管限制银行贷款。“有些值得信赖的公司需要融资。”

注：
1.On betting of ... 押注于 ...
2.Burgeoning 迅速发展的
3.Alternative asset manager 另类资产管理人
4.During a market dislocation that is persistent 在持续的市场混乱中
5. Curb bank lending since 2008 自从2008年来限制贷款



被称为孤星的德州，其独特而脆弱的电网再次陷入困境。得克萨斯州宣称了自两年前一场极冷冬季风暴以来，首次电力紧急状态，随着气温飙升，该州南部地区几陷入轮流停电，轮番进入全面黑暗（rolling blackouts）。周三晚些时候宣布进入所谓的2级紧急状态，是为了应对可用电力供应的萎缩，以及意味着德州电力可靠委员会，也是国家电网的运营商，在敦促消费者限制使用时，不得不使用储备。

注：
1.state-owned Power grid 国家电网
2.Rolling blackouts 轮番进入低迷期
3.Had to draw on reserves 不得不使用储备

大多数人不仅选择在线投票，还可以自由地向政府提供个人信息？这样的国家可以成为一个典范，数字化除了误导和网络攻击之外，仍然显得很有用。这样的地方还真存在，它的名字就是爱沙尼亚（Estonia）。从政府服务到税收和教育，这个波罗的海国家（Baltic nation）正在将自己转变为21世纪国家典范（21st century model），在苏联解体之后立刻兴起的数字民主。在彭博原创系列节目《指数》（Exponentially）的第一集中，投资者兼作家 Azeem Azhar 与爱沙尼亚总理 Kaja Kallas 坐在一起（讨论工作），后者分享了她的政府如何通过拥抱技术来加强民主。

原文

One of Wall Street’s biggest stock-market pessimists dialed back his gloomy forecast for the S&P 500 Index. Greg Boutle, head of US equity and derivative strategy at BNP Paribas, had predicted that the benchmark would end the year at 3,400, an 11% drop from where it finished in 2022. But this week, he capitulated. Boutle raised his target to 4,150—a revised projection that seems to reflect the growing expectation that the US economy will thread the needle of a soft landing, or at the very least avoid any downturn this year. Instead, Boutle said he expects stocks will drift down as growth cools and analysts lower forecasts for corporate earnings. —David E. Rovella

Here are today’s top stories

China is looking to expand a ban on the use of iPhones. If Beijing goes ahead, clinging to the culmination of a years-long effort to root out foreign technology. In markets Thursday, it wasn’t just Apple that took a hit on the news.

SK Hynix has opened an investigation into the use of its chips in the latest phone from Huawei after a teardown of the device revealed its memory and flash storage inside. China-based Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro uses Hynix’s LPDDR5 and NAND flash memory, said TechInsights, who conducted the teardown of the device for Bloomberg News. Icheon-based Hynix “no longer does business with Huawei since the introduction of the US restrictions against the company and, with regard to the issue, we started an investigation to find out more details,” a company spokeswoman said on Thursday.

Components of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro smartphone. Photographer: James Park/Bloomberg JPMorgan is said to be in the early stages of exploring a blockchain-based digital deposit token for speeding up cross-border payments and settlement. Deposit tokens are transferable digital coins that represent a deposit claim against a commercial bank—a digital version of the deposits customers hold in their accounts. The US’s biggest bank by assets has developed most of the underlying infrastructure needed to run the new form of payment, but doesn’t plan to create the token unless the project is approved by US regulators.

Mortgage rates in the US decreased for a second week in a row. The average for a 30-year, fixed loan fell to 7.12% from 7.18% a week earlier, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. Mortgage rates have been above 7% for the past four weeks and have more than doubled since the start of 2022. The surge in borrowing costs has stifled home sales and sidelined many buyers, squeezing affordability.

Former Goldman Sachs partners Tom Connolly and Mike Koester are betting on one of the hottest corners on Wall Street for their next act. The New York-based duo have co-founded a new firm, 5C Investment Partners, that aims to capture a slice of the burgeoning private credit market, where alternative asset managers are increasingly displacing banks by providing multi-billion financings to companies. “Direct lending is playing a very important role during a market dislocation that is persistent,” Koester said in an interview Thursday, referring to regulation that has curbed bank lending since 2008. “There are credit-worthy companies that need financing.”

Tom Connolly, left, and Mike Koester Source: 5C Investment Partners The Lone Star State’s uniquely delicate power grid is in trouble again. Texas declared its first power emergency since a deadly winter storm two years ago and came close to rolling blackouts as soaring temperatures roasted the southern state. The declaration of a so-called Level 2 emergency late Wednesday came in response to shrinking supplies of available power and meant the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state’s grid operator, had to draw on reserves while pushing consumers to curb usage.

One where most people not only choose to vote online, but freely provide their personal information to the government? A country that serves as a possible model for how digitalization can be used for something other than misinformation and cyberattacks? Such a place arguably exists—and its name is Estonia. From government services to taxes and education, the Baltic nation set about transforming itself into a 21st century model for digital democracy soon after the fall of the Soviet Union. On the first episode of the Bloomberg Originals series Exponentially, investor and author Azeem Azhar sits down with Estonia Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who shares how her government has sought to strengthen democracy by embracing technology.

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