发表时间：2024.01.13     作者：Bloomberg     来源：ShoelessCai     阅读：186

主要由百度翻译完成翻译工作，Jingyi 校对并修正。

01 译文

美国通胀似乎将在今年剩余时间继续放缓，可能在2024年结束时接近美联储2%的目标。一些商品的价格甚至开始下跌，下调幅度应该会让美国央行继续降息，更乐观的人希望最快在3月份降息。再加上美国就业形势仍在蓬勃发展，抑制通货膨胀对美联储实现软着陆的目标来说是个好消息。这对 Joe Biden 总统来说也是一个福音，因为他正在认真开展连任竞选。但央行是否在创纪录的加息行动中表现过度仍是一个悬而未决的问题。较低的通货膨胀率可能预示着更广泛的经济放缓，这对民主党来说并不是一个好消息。

ShoelessCai 评注，这段文字，主要说未来一个季度，美国预期降息，是降低经济热度的操作。经济不热的时候，适合干什么？可以略微回调步子，查看有什么基础知识可以补足，或尝试一些新的业务，经济不热的时候，可以减低发展速度，数据更加可信。

on course to 开启一波…操作
employment landscape 就业率软着陆
It’s also a boon for President Joe Biden 对总统来说也是福音
in earnest 认真地
augur 成为…的预兆
augur a broader economic slowdown 预示着更广泛的经济放缓

周四的消费者价格报告可能会让美国消费者尝到即将到来的 通货紧缩 的滋味。商品价格总体上已经停止上涨，有些商品价格，比如汽车价格，正在下跌。对消费者的调查显示，随着天然气价格的下跌，人们对通胀前景的看法有所改善。食品杂货价格仍比一年前上涨——尽管涨幅没有以前那么快。尽管如此，华尔街的一些预测人士预计，加息对经济增长和就业的影响尚未完全显现。富国银行（Wells Fargo）高级经济学家 Sarah House 表示：“如果这种减速是以需求疲软为代价的——而且与就业市场有关——这可能是一个抵消因素。”--David E.Rovella

ShoelessCai 评注，House 的话，如果经济速度减缓，使得需求也疲软了，那放缓经济为了达到的目标，例如，某些不符合需求的产能防止过剩，这件事情本身就值得质疑的。因为需求不是刚性的嘛，是随着你生产刺激出来的。

report on consumer price 消费者价格的报告

美国监管机构正式批准了直接投资比特币的交易所交易基金，此举被誉为约1.7万亿美元数字资产行业的里程碑式事件。美国证券交易委员会授权11只基金周四开始交易。但即使在宣布这一消息之前，在周二美国证券交易委员会社交媒体账户遭到黑客攻击的余波中，对职位的争夺已经开始。随着公司进一步降价，以提高产品对投资者的吸引力，潜在比特币ETF发行人之间的竞争加剧。贝莱德将其iShares ETF的费用下调了5个基点，至0.25%。贝莱德还下调了该基金的介绍价。彭博资讯分析师Eric Balchunas表示：“贝莱德真的要抓住要害。”。

be heralded as 被誉为
herald 预示，宣布
jostling for 争抢
jugular 颈静脉
introductory offer 介绍价

Lionel Laurent在彭博资讯（Bloomberg Opinion）上写道，监管部门对ETF的批准不应该是一场一场如摔跤般狂热的大众媒体事件。然而，事实却是的。围绕美国现货比特币ETF的炒作已经达到了类似于识别疫情的鹰眼水平：加密货币价格飙升，黑客正在动员，Redditor正在奔走相告。但劳伦特表示，那些关于该游戏规则，以及采纳黄金律的承诺，看起来太像夸张的谣言。

be a mass-media event worthy of Wrestlemania 一场如摔跤般狂热的大众媒体事件
akin to 类似于
Redditors are pumping 正在奔走相告。百度翻译为，正在抽水，取决于比特币界是否有行业黑话。
But Laurent says the promise of game-changing, gold-like adoption looks like a meme too far.但劳伦特表示，那些关于该游戏规则，以及采纳黄金律的承诺，看起来太像夸张的谣言。ShoelessCai 修正后的翻译。

阿拉斯加航空公司将在未来三天停飞波音737 Max 9飞机的所有航班，等待飞机制造商和美国安全监管机构的检查指示。与此同时，波音公司首席执行官 Dave Calhoun 表示，陷入困境的公司必须承认自己的不足，这突显了一场安全事件的利害关系，这场事件再次引发了人们对其制造质量和长期陷入困境的737 Max项目的质疑。



由于对乌克兰的援助仍被国会共和党人阻止，拜登政府现在支持立法，允许其扣押3000亿美元冻结的俄罗斯资产中的一部分，以帮助支付乌克兰的重建费用。根据国家安全委员会11月给参议院外交关系委员会的备忘录，政府“原则上”欢迎一项允许没收资金的法案。然而，这种转变在一些方面引发了担忧，担心这可能会损害美国金融体系的声誉，并引发对美元的逃离。

confiscate 没收
engendered fears in some quarters that it could taint the reputation of the US financial system 这种转变在一些方面引发了担忧，担心这可能会损害美国金融体系的声誉
taint 败坏
spark a flight from the dollar 引发对美元的逃离。注，乍一看我会以为是“美元飞涨”。注意 from 这个介词

由于对乌克兰的援助仍被国会共和党人阻止，拜登政府现在支持立法，允许其扣押3000亿美元冻结的俄罗斯资产中的一部分，以帮助支付乌克兰的重建费用。根据国家安全委员会11月给参议院外交关系委员会的备忘录，政府“原则上”欢迎一项允许没收资金的法案。然而，这种转变在一些方面引发了担忧，担心这可能会损害美国金融体系的声誉，并引发对美元的逃离。

蔡奇不仅是中国最有权力的政治局常委，与习主席一起处理诸多重要事务。这些双重头衔给了蔡另一种特权：他是中国最高决策机构中唯一一位公开与习近平一起出国的成员。

influential figures 有影响力的人物



在过去的两年里，亚马逊解雇了27000多名员工，这是科技公司因疫情影响和从未到来的经济衰退而大量解雇的一部分。现在是2024年，亚马逊再次解雇员工。该公司宣布将终止其Prime Video和工作室业务的数百人。

前瑞士信贷明星交易员哈姆扎·莱姆索格去年带领他的对冲基金实现了两位数的收益，使其成为表现最好的信贷资金池之一。据说，他27亿美元的Arini信贷母基金的回报率为32%，而5.44亿美元的阿里尼结构化信贷股票基金的回报为26.7%。相比之下，彭博社追踪的信贷对冲基金去年的平均回报率仅为8%。莱姆索格的秘密是什么？他的收益很大程度上是由这些赌注推动的。

02 原文

US inflation looks like it will keep slowing through the rest of this year, perhaps ending 2024 near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Prices for some goods have even started dropping. The downdraft should keep the US central bank on course to start lowering interest rates, with the more optimistic hoping for cuts as soon as March. Coupled with a still-booming American employment landscape, the taming of inflation is good news for the Fed’s goal of a soft landing. It’s also a boon for President Joe Biden as he launches his re-election campaign in earnest. But whether or not the central bank overshot with its record rate-hike campaign is still an open question. Lower inflation could augur a broader economic slowdown, which would be less-than-pleasant news for the Democrat.

Thursday’s report on consumer prices will probably give a taste of the disinflation to come for the American consumer. Goods prices overall have stopped rising and some, like those for cars, are falling. Surveys of consumers have shown improvements in sentiment about the outlook for inflation with declines in gas prices leading the way. Grocery costs are still up from a year ago—though they’re not rising as fast as they were. Still, some forecasters on Wall Street anticipate the effect of elevated interest rates has yet to be fully felt on growth and hiring. “If some of that deceleration is coming at the expense of weakening demand—and that being tied to the job market—that could be an offsetting factor,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. —David E. Rovella

US regulators formally approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in Bitcoin, a move heralded as a landmark event for the roughly $1.7 trillion digital-asset sector. The Securities and Exchange Commission authorized 11 funds to begin trading Thursday. But even before the announcement, and amid the fallout of Tuesday’s hack of the SEC’s social media account, the jostling for position had already begun. Competition among prospective Bitcoin ETF issuers intensified as companies further slashed prices in a bid to make products more attractive to investors. BlackRock lowered the fee on its iShares ETF by five basis points to 0.25%. It also lowered its introductory offer on the fund. “BlackRock is really going for the jugular here,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas.

The regulatory approval of an ETF isn’t supposed to be a mass-media event worthy of Wrestlemania, Lionel Laurent writes in Bloomberg Opinion. Yet here we are. The hype around US spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached meme levels akin to pandemic-era laser eyes: Crypto prices are soaring, hackers are mobilizing and Redditors are pumping. But Laurent says the promise of game-changing, gold-like adoption looks like a meme too far.

Alaska Air is grounding all flights by Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft over the next three days as it awaits instructions from the planemaker and US safety regulators on inspections. Meanwhile, Boeing Chief Executive Officer Dave Calhoun said his embattled company must own up to its shortcomings, underscoring the stakes of a safety incident that’s renewing questions over the quality of its manufacturing and the long-troubled 737 Max program.

With aid to Ukraine still blocked by Congressional Republicans, the Biden administration is now backing legislation that would let it seize some of $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to help pay for reconstruction of Ukraine. The administration welcomes “in principle” a bill that would allow it to confiscate the funds, according to a November memo from the National Security Council to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The shift however has engendered fears in some quarters that it could taint the reputation of the US financial system and spark a flight from the dollar.

When Xi Jinping attended talks with Joe Biden in November, seated to his right was a man who is quietly emerging as one of China’s most influential figures. Those dual titles have given Cai another privilege: He’s the only member of China’s top decision-making body to have publicly traveled overseas with Xi.

Over the past two years, Amazon fired more than 27,000 of its employees, part of a flood of terminations by technology companies tied to pandemic fallout and a recession that never came. Now it’s 2024, and Amazon is dismissing its workers again. The company announced it’s terminating hundreds of people in its Prime Video and studios business.

Former Credit Suisse star trader Hamza Lemssouguer guided his hedge fund to double-digit gains last year, making it one of the best-performing credit money pools out there. His $2.7 billion Arini Credit Master Fund is said to have returned 32% while the $544 million Arini Structured Credit Equity Fund gained 26.7%. By comparison, credit hedge funds tracked by Bloomberg returned only 8% on average last year. So what’s Lemssouguer’s secret? His gains were largely driven by these bets.

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