发表时间：2024.01.23     作者：Bloomberg     来源：ShoelessCait     阅读：213

彭博推送 | 佛罗里达罗恩会后悔的吧？竟然推选挺川！ 题目由 ShoelessCai.com 自拟。

主要由百度翻译进行翻译工作，Jingyi 主要进行校对工作。

01 译文

Must-Reads

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡拒绝了一项新的人质协议。

哈佛大学前校长 Larry Summers 表示，一个新的反犹太主义特别工作组的联合主席不适合领导该工作组。

两大华尔街公司表示，现在是买入下跌股票的时候了。

政治是艰难的，但很少有总统候选人能像罗恩·德桑蒂斯那样乘坐雪橇。早在这位佛罗里达州州长周日退出共和党初选之前，政治记者团就已经举行了最后的仪式，宣布他死亡，并发布了一系列残酷的讣告（Politico：“德桑蒂斯团队进行了历史上最糟糕的竞选”）。

他们没有错。德桑蒂斯在艰难地度过他注定要失败的竞选的最后一个致命阶段时，也默认了这一点。一年前，德桑蒂斯以压倒性的连任胜利成为共和党政治的祝酒词，成为新任命的特朗普杀手和《商业周刊》的封面人物。一年后，他被视为一代人的失败。

和许多表现不佳的政客一样，德桑蒂斯指责媒体。但他也姗姗来迟地认识到，他的策略——只对福克斯新闻发表讲话，同时无端地对抗和冻结主流媒体——在他的脸上像 Wile E Coyote 的恶作剧一样爆炸了。上周，忧郁的德桑蒂斯对保守派电台主持人休·休伊特说：“我本应该屏蔽”广播。“我本应该参加所有的企业演出。”他继续说道，“我认为，我们有机会走出大门，做到这一点，并接触到更广泛的人群。”



再说一遍，没有错。2022年秋天，当德桑蒂斯竞选连任时，我和他一起穿越佛罗里达州时，他还没有顿悟。所有后来让他沉沦的个人特质在当时都很明显：他严肃的举止、社交尴尬，尤其是对媒体的蔑视。在德桑蒂斯的集会上，记者们被赶到人群后面的围栏里，围栏周围由竞选工作人员监管。前总统 Trump 经常做类似的事情，尽管很容易穿过大门，采访狂热的MAGA顽固分子。

德桑蒂斯则不然。记者们不仅在他的演讲期间被隔离，而且在演讲后很长一段时间都被关押，直到舞台上完全清除了他的支持者。德桑蒂斯为什么要阻止记者与渴望向他致敬的球迷交谈，这令人费解——这表明他可能不是当时人们认为的后起之秀。

我2023年《商业周刊》简介的主题是，德桑蒂斯几乎模仿了特朗普的一切，成为了共和党的头号挑战者：他的问题、他的声音变化、他的手势、他在福克斯新闻上的无处不在。德桑蒂斯没有模仿的一件事——因为他显然没有理解——是特朗普与媒体功利关系的真实本质。

当然，特朗普喜欢在集会上攻击“假新闻”媒体。但在幕后，他和他的工作人员痴迷于新闻报道，通常像筛子一样漏洞百出，明白这是影响故事选择和报道的一种方式。无论特朗普在台上说什么，他都喜欢与记者和作家交谈，知道只要他想改变话题，他就可以抓住聚光灯，制造新闻。

就像一个天真的人确信舞台上的魔术师真的看到了一个女人的一半一样，德桑蒂斯没有意识到特朗普对媒体的仇恨是一场表演。否则，德桑蒂斯在密切听取右翼媒体的意见时，实际上相信自己可以赢得白宫，而只与Newsmax和Fox News等媒体交谈。

共和党策略师Alex Conant表示，拒绝与主流媒体接触是一种职业渎职行为，使媒体能够在没有任何意见或反对的情况下定义德桑蒂斯。科南特说：“竞选总统的全部目的是尽可能多地获得媒体！”。

也许这是一个小小的安慰，德桑蒂斯现在更清楚了。上周，他在爱荷华州向记者抱怨福克斯等保守派媒体充当了特朗普的“禁卫军”。在绝望中，他开始与他曾经唾弃的新闻机构交谈。

但它太少，太晚了。德桑蒂斯已经输给了艾奥瓦州，在新罕布什尔州的民意调查结果是个位数。福克斯新闻（Fox News）的劳拉·英格拉姆（Laura Ingraham）已经呼吁他“下台，支持特朗普”。这一定刺痛了他。当德桑蒂斯意识到他别无选择时，这可能更刺痛了他--Joshua Green，彭博商业周刊。

Big Changes for the Biggest Bond Market

经过多年的修补，绝大多数美国国债交易将转移到中央交易对手清算所，这是买卖双方之间的中介机构，对交易承担最终责任。这一分阶段实施的过程在2026年年中达到顶峰，并得到了美国证券交易委员会委员长加里·根斯勒的支持，他曾在财政部监督联邦债务管理。几个亮点：

监管机构表示，它应该将任何一家金融机构的冲击性倒闭所带来的传染危险降至最低。

由于票据交换所承担完成交易的责任，它降低了交易对手无法完成交易的风险。

经销商将面临更高的风险管理成本。

新的抵押品和保证金规则也可能意味着日常流动性减少。

How Sweden Quit Smoking

截至2022年，只有5.6%的瑞典人口仍沉迷于普通香烟。这是欧洲最低的吸烟率，如果这种趋势继续下去，2024年的某个时候，这一数字将降至5%以下——一个国家可以宣布自己“无烟”的水平。

随着世界各国政府努力遏制吸烟，瑞典已成为一个关于如何最好地做到这一点的有争议的案例研究。虽然公共卫生官员和反吸烟倡导者将该国的成功归因于有效的政策制定，但政界人士、大烟草公司和一些公共卫生专家声称，真正的功劳应该归于snus。

这些充满尼古丁的袋子类似于使用者塞在上唇下的小茶包。传统的snus是用经过巴氏杀菌和调味的湿润烟草制成的，而其已有十年历史的排列，俗称白色snus，使用植物纤维代替烟草来输送尼古丁。瑞典人不区分这两种类型。

02 原文

Must-Reads

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a new hostage deal.

Larry Summers, Harvard University’s former president, says the co-chair of a new task force on antisemitism is unsuited to lead it.

Two major Wall Street firms say now is the time to buy the dip.

Politics is rough sledding, but few presidential candidates have had a rockier toboggan ride than Ron DeSantis. Long before the Florida governor dropped out of the Republican primary race on Sunday, with a post on X using a fake Winston Churchill quote, the political press corps had already administered last rites, pronounced him dead and rushed out a flurry of brutal obituaries (Politico: “The DeSantis Team Ran the Worst Campaign in History”).

They weren’t wrong. DeSantis tacitly admitted as much while trudging through the final, mortal stage of his doomed campaign. One year after his landslide reelection victory made him the toast of Republican politics, the newly anointed Trump-slayer and a Businessweek cover subject, DeSantis has come to be seen as a generational failure.

Like many politicians who come up short, DeSantis blames the press. But he has also belatedly recognized that his strategy—of speaking only to Fox News while gratuitously antagonizing and freezing out the mainstream media—has exploded in his face like a Wile E. Coyote caper. “I should have just been blanketing” the airwaves, a morose DeSantis told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt last week. “I should have gone on all the corporate shows.” He continued, “We had an opportunity, I think, to come out of the gate and do that and reach a much broader folk.”

Again, not wrong. DeSantis had not yet arrived at this epiphany in the fall of 2022 when I traveled with him across Florida as he campaigned for reelection. All the personal attributes that would later sink him were evident back then: his dour demeanor, social awkwardness and, especially, contempt for the press. At DeSantis rallies, reporters were herded into a pen in the back of the crowd whose perimeter was policed by campaign staff. Former President Donald Trump often does something similar, though it’s easy to slip through the gate and interview rapturous MAGA diehards.

Not so with DeSantis. Reporters were not only sequestered during his speech, but also held long afterward, until the arena had been completely cleared of his supporters. Why DeSantis would want to prevent reporters from talking to fans eager to shower him with praise was baffling—and a sign he might not be the rising star he was then presumed to be.

The theme of my 2023 Businessweek profile was that DeSantis had emerged as the top Republican challenger by mimicking almost everything about Trump: his issues, his vocal inflections, his hand gestures, his ubiquity on Fox News. The one thing DeSantis didn’t mimic—because he apparently didn’t grasp it—was the true nature of Trump’s utilitarian relationship with the press.

Trump, of course, delights in attacking the “fake news” media at rallies. But behind the scenes, he and his staff are obsessed with press coverage and generally leak like sieves, understanding that this is a way to influence story selection and coverage. Whatever he claims on stage, Trump loves talking to reporters and authors, knowing that he can seize the spotlight and make news whenever he wants to change the subject.

Like a naif convinced that the magician on stage really did saw a woman in half, DeSantis didn’t grasp that Trump’s media hatred is a performance. Or else DeSantis, listening closely to right-wing media, actually believed he could win the White House while talking only to the likes of Newsmax and Fox News.

Republican strategist Alex Conant says that refusing to engage with the mainstream media was professional malpractice that allowed the press to define DeSantis, with no input or pushback from his campaign. “The whole point of running for president is to get as much media as you can!” Conant says.

Perhaps it’s a small consolation that DeSantis knows better now. Last week, he griped to reporters in Iowa that conservative media outlets like Fox had acted as “a Praetorian Guard” for Trump. In desperation, he’d begun talking to the news organizations he’d once spurned.

But it was too little, too late. DeSantis had already lost Iowa and was polling in single digits in New Hampshire. Fox News’ Laura Ingraham had already called on him to “step aside and endorse Trump.” That must’ve stung. It probably stung more when DeSantis realized that he had no other choice. —Joshua Green, Bloomberg Businessweek

Big Changes for the Biggest Bond Market

After years of tinkering, the vast majority of US Treasuries trading will migrate to a central counterparty clearinghouse—an intermediary between buyers and sellers that assumes ultimate responsibility for the transaction. The phased-in process culminates in mid-2026 and has been championed by SEC Commissioner Chair Gary Gensler, who once oversaw federal debt management at the Treasury. A few highlights:

Regulators say it should minimize the danger of contagion from a shock collapse of any one financial institution.

Because the clearinghouse assumes responsibility for completing transactions, it reduces the risk of a counterparty being unable to complete a deal.

Dealers will face higher risk-management costs.

New collateral and margin rules may also mean less day-to-day liquidity.

How Sweden Quit Smoking

As of 2022 only 5.6% of Sweden’s population still indulged in regular cigarettes. That’s the lowest rate anywhere in Europe, and should the trajectory continue, that figure will fall below 5% at some point in 2024—the level at which a country can declare itself “smoke-free.”

As governments around the world strive to curb smoking, Sweden has become a controversial case study in how best to do so. While public-health officials and antismoking advocates attribute the country’s success to effective policymaking, politicians, Big Tobacco and some public-health experts claim the real credit should go to snus.

These nicotine-filled pouches resembling tiny teabags that users stuff under their upper lip. Traditional snus is made with moistened tobacco that’s been pasteurized and flavored, while its decade-old permutation, colloquially called white snus, uses plant-based fibers in lieu of tobacco to deliver nicotine. Swedes don’t differentiate between the two types.

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