发表时间：2024.08.26     作者：Jingyi     来源：Bloomberg     阅读：123

彭博推送 | 你很可能不再富裕

原邮件推送：You May No Longer be Rich。

封面故事：Ken Leech， executive from Western Asset Managemen

Jingyi 主要翻译，以及百度翻译校对。

原文

房价又涨了，股价也涨了。这是美国人 需要让他们觉得富有的抓手。平均而言，你要拥有 250 万美元的资产，美国人才会认为你是富人。这个阈值涨了 14%，Charles Schwab （一家市场调研机构，点击了解）开展了调查，发现人们觉得拥有 220 万美元，就会觉得你是富人。“财富的关键，是连接数字和情绪的。”（评注：那这样，我周围的朋友就显得更加可疑了！对吧！你挑起你朋友的情绪干嘛呢？）这家调研机构的财富规划师，ROB 这么说到。“富人标准，从 220 万升到 250 万，有两个暗示。一是生活成本在增加；二是大多数美国人，讨论致富原因会更加情绪化。（most Americans’ more emotion-fueled views of what it takes to be wealthy）”

毫无意外地，有些人越年长，他们关于富有的定义就越高。婴儿潮一代认为富有的标准是 280 万美元，千禧一代认为是 220 万美元。总的来说，略微高于 1/5 美国人的标准。他们的说法，正在变得富裕 —— 以及 10% 的人认为他们已经富裕了。

—— David E. Rovella

今日要闻

如果对联储施压，下个月就降息的话，美国就业市场显然更不稳定，相对于去年、更久之前。从去年 3 月算到今年 3 月，美国拿工资的人数，约为 81.8 万。根据劳工局统计数据，每个月这个数字减少 6.8 万，这个机关也是规定统计数据标准的（preliminary benchmark revision）。这个数据 2009 年以来是向下跑的，这项数据，美国劳动力市场放缓，要比预计的早很多。

有些人获得坏消息会比其他人早，至少有三家银行会获得薪资数据，同时，华尔街其他参与者只能等待，挑拨市场，开启疑惑。如果劳工局上午 10 点，出台数据（revision）不及时。Mizuho Financial Group and BNP Paribas，这两家参与者，会致电政府直接获得数据。Nomura Holdings 也这么干，但他得知供应数据公司也告诉其他参与者，他会很愤怒。

whipsawing 利用一方打击另一方
sowing 播种

Western Asset Management 这家公司的投资人 Ken，也参与试探政府机构，包括法院署和证监会，是否存在某些机构，利用衍生品头寸，针对市场的其他参与者获利。（评注：我们认为，可能利用大资本人为制造封闭市场，进行放血）。Ken 这个人，是管理美国最大债券组合的，他们收到证监会发来的“自查通知”的时候，总会立即休假，Ken（或者这家公司）称，纽约检察官，据说在开展犯罪调查，关于 cherry-picking，这种做法是将获利的钱记入优惠账户。

Wells notice: A Wells Notice is a notification issued by regulators to inform individuals or companies of completed investigations where infractions have been discovered.

交易员想尝试墨西哥比索交易，但是未能找到突破。当地政客也在揭示 carry trade。这个交易，影响美国形象，以及干扰牛市，即干扰了2024年表现最好的新兴货币市场。最近比索相对于美元下降了 4%，过去 3 个月总下降量为 14%，迄今为止，在其他货币中表现最差。比索这三年以来，6个月隐藏波动达到几乎（历史）最高点。

比特币衍生品市场信号显示，最近越发增长的“short squeeze”风险，这个信号可能投资者聚众，依据加密货币专家 K33 说法。为什么呢？关于比特币永久期货借贷利率（the metric of funding rate）的衡量标准，实质是衡量投机者的“牛市化”和“熊市化”程度的市场大小。平均的年化 7 天借贷利率，是到达最低点，自从 2023 年 3 月以来。去年 3 月，美国几家区域性银行突然崩溃（imploding）。“永久性的 7 天借贷利率互换，在过去几天，达到负利率水平。开放的利率在急剧上升。”K33 这样评论，“这暗示了激进的卖空操作，还结构化地预期了 Short Squeeze 之后的收获”。

美国副总统哈里斯，会支持措施，帮助提升数字资产。政治咨询师说到，要强调这样的作用，即规范化新兴的、加密货币的行业，因其正在忙于增加政治影响力。“她将支持政策，保证新兴技术及行业持续成长。”Nelson 说到，他是资深的政治活动咨询师。他说，如果被问及自己对民主党提名的作用，在民主党代表大会的彭博圆桌会议上，将加密社区人群，提上议事日程。

stoke 激起，煽动
rallies 群主集会，拉力赛

几百年以来，港口，逐渐从贸易港口和军事要塞，变成了全球经济体交汇的港口。港口成为至关重要的连接点，连接了能源流、基础设施集散中心、行业生产聚类点、仓储物流聚类点。港口现在处理全世界 80% 的贸易货物。港口工作人员必须面对昂贵，以及痛苦地和数字技术对话过程，还包括自动化、绿色能源。这些所有工作要支出 2.2 万亿美元。

原文

Home prices are higher. Stocks are higher. And so is the amount of money Americans think they need to feel rich. On average, they say it takes a net worth of $2.5 million to be considered wealthy. That’s a 14% jump from last year, when the Charles Schwab Modern Wealth survey found Americans thought it took only $2.2 million. “The notion of wealth combines both numbers and emotions,” said Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning at Charles Schwab. “The jump from $2.2 million to $2.5 million demonstrates both sides—the cost of living is rising, as are, it’s likely, most Americans’ more emotion-fueled views of what it takes to be wealthy.”

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the older someone is, the higher their definition of wealth is. Baby boomers said being wealthy takes $2.8 million, while millennials peg it at $2.2 million. Overall, slightly more than one-in-five Americans said they were “on track” to be wealthy—and 10% said they were wealthy already. —David E. Rovella

Here are today’s top stories

US job growth was apparently far less robust for most of last year than previously reported, putting yet more pressure on the Fed to cut rates next month. The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March—or around 68,000 less each month—according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision. It was the largest downward revision since 2009. The revisions suggest the labor market started moderating much sooner than originally thought.

And it would seem that some got the bad news earlier than others. At least three banks managed to obtain the payroll numbers Wednesday while the rest of Wall Street was kept waiting, whipsawing markets and sowing confusion on trading desks. After the Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to post its revisions at 10 a.m. New York time, Mizuho Financial Group and BNP Paribas both called the department and got the number directly. So did Nomura Holdings. Anger quickly mounted at competitors as word spread that the BLS was releasing the number to some firms over the phone.

Ken Leech, the longtime Western Asset Management chief investment officer, left his role amid probes from the Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission into whether some clients were favored over others in allocating gains and losses from derivatives trades. Leech, who manages some of the largest bond strategies in the US, will take an immediate leave of absence after receiving a so-called Wells notice from the SEC, the company said. Federal prosecutors in New York are said to be conducting a criminal probe into the practice known as “cherry-picking,” where winning trades are credited to favored accounts.

Traders trying to buy the dip on Mexico’s peso can’t catch a break. Local politics, the dismantling of “carry trades” and concerns about the US outlook are disrupting bullish calls on what was recently the best performing emerging-market currency of 2024. The peso is down almost 4% against the dollar this week and more than 14% in the past three months, by far the worst among its peers. The peso’s six-month implied volatility has jumped to near the highest in three years.

A signal from the Bitcoin derivatives market points to the growing risk of a “short squeeze” that could stoke sharp rallies, according to cryptocurrency specialist K33 Research. The metric is the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures, which helps gauge how bullish or bearish speculators are. The seven-day average annualized funding rate is the lowest since March 2023, back when several regional US banks were imploding. “Perpetual swap funding rates have averaged at negative levels over the past week, while open interest has sharply increased,” K33 analysts wrote in a note. “This suggests aggressive shorting, structurally creating a setup ripe for a short squeeze.”

US Vice President Kamala Harris will back measures to help grow digital assets, a policy adviser to her campaign said, highlighting efforts to court an emerging cryptocurrency industry that’s busy expanding its political influence. “She’s going to support policies that ensure that emerging technologies and that sort of industry can continue to grow,” Brian Nelson, senior campaign adviser for policy to the campaign, said when asked about the Democratic nominee’s efforts to engage the crypto community during a Bloomberg News roundtable at the Democratic National Convention.

Over the centuries, maritime ports evolved from trading posts and naval bases into economies within economies that have supercharged globalization, becoming vital junctions for energy flows, hubs for infrastructure and clusters for industrial production, warehousing and distribution. Now responsible for handling 80% of the world’s annual merchandise trade, they’re having to undergo costly and painstaking conversions to digital technologies, automation and green energy—and it’s going to cost $2.2 trillion.

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