封面故事：A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile rolls through Moscow during a rehearsal for a military parade. Photographer: SOPA Images/LightRocket。来自彭博推送。
彭博推送 | 低于预期
Below Expectation
借助 ERP，推动可持续发展计划
近期，IBM 商业价值研究院 (IBM Institute for Business Value) 和 SAP 联合牛津经济研究院 (Oxford Economics)，对超过 2,125 名业务负责人展开了调查，旨在了解 ERP 在注重环保的企业中发挥的作用。调查发现，15% 的受访企业（支持环境可持续发展）不仅优先考虑环境可持续发展，还依靠 ERP 数据架构来实现可持续发展目标。
这些企业展现了出色的环境可持续性表现，并深知 ERP 在其中的关键角色。相比那些觉得环境可持续性不是业务成功关键因素的企业，以及那些在这方面几乎没有或根本没有投资的企业，这些重视可持续性的企业的盈利能力高出了46%。
该调研报告还指出，“企业在管理可持续性绩效时，应该像管理财务绩效那样严谨。绝大多数的企业在业务数据的透明性上还有待提高，他们尚未完全实现可持续性运营。企业在处理可持续发展数据时，应该像处理财务数据那样严格和准确。而达到这一目标的最佳策略就是充分利用企业的数据核心——ERP 系统。”
—— SAP
彭博观点
美国人力资源 8 月初显积极态势，暂时两个月之后就显示朝下的势头，其发展趋势可能点燃正在进行的争论，关于联储应该降息降多少，注意并非“是否该降息”。非农薪资仅提升了 14.2万美元上个月，拉低了 3 个月平均，自 2020 年以来。劳工部统计局数据，周五显示，失业率跌至 4.2%，前五个月首次下跌，翻译最近裁员潮反转（开始裁裁得少了！）。
关于就业数据，联邦政府 Waller 说到，最后一波数据“需要行动”，加之他提倡“适当削减前沿加载率”。Varghese 全球宏观策略家，与 Carson 集团工作，说到：“劳动力市场显然疲软了，联储需介入并削减试错风险。报告封装了九月利率削减的交易，但是真正问题，在于联储是否会做大（whether the Fed goes big）。”
—— David E. Rovella
front-loading rate 前沿加载率
彭博要闻
股票市场并不好受
2023年3月投资者持续恐慌，经济低迷持久，就业率可能跌破央行预期。标普 500 跌了 1.7%，纳斯达克 100 跳水 2.7%，数据显示美国薪酬，比预测少了 2.3 万。2年国债利率，掉了 15 个基点，在削减行动之前。
before paring the move 在削减行动之前
台湾半导体生产商的生产率，在亚利桑那和在自家的工厂一致。早些时候的指标显示，美国的生产正在达到其目标。测试生产的产量，起初说和台南设备一致。台积电表示，四月开始生产晶圆，用的 4nm 技术。
on par with 与……一致
据说，拜登在筹划一项提案，关于美国国家财富基金（American sovereign wealth），将使得美国投资国家证券，包括技术、能源，以及和供应链相关的关键企业。国家证券咨询师 Sullivan 及其代表，Singh，着手该项工作好几个月了，也达到了国家证券协会（National Security Council）经济学家去争论讨论的程度，关于规模、结构、融资方式（funding）、领导力、保护网。
中国应该为其账户不平衡而给出解释，美国怀疑中国隐瞒了全球不平衡，美国经济学家说到。中国商品贸易顺差（trade surplus），由国家外汇管理局统计，显著地少算了（undershot），从2022年开始，依据 Brad Setser 说法，这人是外交机关（the Council on Foreign Relations）Senior，也是之前的国债官员。“这些巨大的差异，引起疑问”，Setser 在外滩峰会上表示。差距很显然很蓄意，随着各国试图衡量中国贸易顺差规模。很多人诟病中国补贴出口企业，操控增长。美国国债 6月 致电北京寻求说法。
OnlyFans 公司支付拥有着 Radvinsky 4.72 亿美元，作为股息，去年的时候。此人身价资产超过 10 亿美元，在三年内。Radvinsky 3.38 亿美元 2022 年，2.84 亿美元前年，依据英国金融数据。此人 42 岁，美国公民，Fenix International 单一拥有者，这是 OnlyFans 母公司。Fenix 坐落于伦敦，人气急剧上升，在疫情器件，其声誉是可容纳小黄片，相对于大多数社交媒体来说。公司地位越发稳固，在喜剧演员、主厨、私教，以及其他创造者。
官方消息：对特朗普重罪起诉不太可能，在 11 月选举之前。今年早些时候，特朗普在纽约地方法院被判决，试图操作 2016 年选举，用黄片明星和财务欺诈手段，可能面临四年监禁。如今，法官推迟宣判，为了正义。尽管很多人看来是特朗普的胜利，选举之前判决有争议，可能影响其支持者的信心，与有罪判决也没什么两样。首次出现这种情况，前任总统是重罪，四次起诉，两次弹劾。特朗普仍然面临各种可能，即联邦呼吁法院重启起诉，关于其非法处理军事机密的问题。这案件被地方法官爆出，Aileen 也是特朗普任命，这是最后一个她作出的非传统的决策。共和党对其进行起诉，关于他声称，通过阻止拜登就职来颠覆美国民主。Georgia 地方案件，罢免了检察官。联邦的案例呢（同一个案件）？长期不管，最终被最高法院忽略。这样的案件，才刚刚恢复进程。如果特朗普当选，人们会很期待他命令美国司法部，撤销联邦案件。
felony prosecutions 重罪起诉
four indictments and two impeachments 四次起诉两次弹劾
subvert American democracy 颠覆美国的民主
冷战之后的时期，里根总统使用俄罗斯格言，“信任，但要核实”，涉及与墨西哥的谈判，Marc 在彭博观点中写道。那些日子，现在看来稳定、和蔼，和目前情况来比较。那时候缔结的条约安全网是瓦解的（unraveled）。乌克兰战争爆发，俄罗斯官方声称，其将确立一项修订的法案，关于核武器使用。本质上，新的核武器条约。一旦条约形成，Marc （作者）建议将上述方式改成“怀疑，警戒”。
US hiring rose in August but fell short of forecasts after downward revisions to the prior two months, a development likely to fuel ongoing debate over how much—and not whether—the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 142,000 last month, leaving the three-month average at the lowest since mid-2020, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, the first decline in five months, reflecting a reversal in recent layoffs.
In remarks after the release of the jobs numbers, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the latest batch of data “requires action,” adding he would advocate for “front-loading rate cuts if that is appropriate.” Sonu Varghese, a global macro strategist at Carson Group, offered that “the labor market is clearly softening, and the Fed needs to step in to cut off tail risks. The report seals the deal for a September rate cut, but the big question really is whether the Fed goes big.” —David E. Rovella
Here are today’s top stories
Stocks saw their worst week sinc
e March 2023 as investors continue to panic that the Fed’s effort to cool the economy has lasted too long, and that job growth will fall beyond what the central bank is shooting for. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 slumped 2.7% as data showed US payroll additions were 23,000 short of forecasts in August. Treasury two-year yields slipped as much as 15 basis points before paring the move. Here’s your markets wrap.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing achieved production yields at its Arizona facility on par with established plants back home, an early indicator that its marquee US project is on track to achieve its targets. The maker's yield rate in trial production at its first advanced US plant is said to be similar to comparable facilities in Tainan. TSMC had said it started engineering wafer production in April with advanced 4-nanometer process technology.
The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing facility in 2022, then under construction, in Phoenix, Arizona Photographer: Caitlin O'Hara/Bloomberg
Top aides to President Joe Biden are said to have been crafting a proposal to create an American sovereign wealth fund that would allow the US to invest in national security interests including technology, energy and critical links in the supply chain. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and his deputy, Daleep Singh, have been working on the project for months and have met with economic experts on the National Security Council to debate the size, structure, funding, leadership and potential guardrails for a proposed fund.
China should explain widening discrepancies in its balance of payments (BoP) data that are obscuring growing global imbalances, a top US economist said. The country’s surplus in goods trade shown in the BoP data—compiled by its State Administration of Foreign Exchange—has significantly undershot that reported by customs data since 2022, according to Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former US trade and Treasury official. “These are enormous gaps that call into question,” Setser said on the sidelines of the Bund Summit in Shanghai. The gap is contentious as countries seek to gauge the true size of China’s trade surplus. Many accuse Beijing of unfairly subsidizing exports to drive growth. The US Treasury in June called for clarifications from Beijing on the difference.
OnlyFans paid owner Leonid Radvinsky $472 million in dividends last fiscal year, bringing his takings from the site to more than $1 billion in three years. Radvinsky made $338 million in 2022 and $284 million the year before that, according to UK financial filings. The 42-year-old US citizen is the sole owner of OnlyFans’ holding company, Fenix International. The London-based company, which skyrocketed in popularity during Covid-19 lockdowns and has a reputation for hosting pornographic and adult content forbidden on most other social networks, has been building up its stable of comedians, chefs, personal trainers and other types of creators to widen its user base.
It’s official: There are unlikely to be any major developments in the felony prosecutions of Donald Trump before the November election. Trump was convicted earlier this year in New York state court for trying to manipulate the 2016 presidential election campaign by way of a porn star-payoff and accounting fraud, and faces up to four years in prison. The judge today pushed back sentencing “in the interests of justice.” Though seen by many as a victory for Trump, a sentencing before the election could arguably have energized his supporters and donors in the same way the guilty verdict did. Officially a convicted felon, a first for a former US president (as were his four indictments and two impeachments), Trump still faces the possibility that a federal appeals court revives his prosecution for mishandling America’s top military secrets. The case was thrown out by US District Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, in the last of a series of unorthodox rulings by her in his favor. Then there are the Republican’s prosecutions over his alleged attempt to subvert American democracy by preventing President Joe Biden from taking office. A state case (in Georgia) is held up over an effort to remove the prosecutor, and the federal case—long delayed and subsequently watered down by the US Supreme Court—is just now resuming proceedings. If elected, Trump is widely expected to order the Justice Department to drop the federal cases.
In the later stages of the Cold War, US President Ronald Reagan appropriated a Russian saying, “Trust, but verify,” in reference to negotiating arms control with Moscow, Marc Champion writes in Bloomberg Opinion. Those days now seem stable, cordial even, compared with our present moment. The safety net of treaties from that era has unraveled, a war is raging in Ukraine, and Russian officials say they’re about to produce a revised doctrine on nuclear weapons use—in essence, a new nuclear threat. Once that appears, Champion suggests adapting the above approach to “distrust, and be vigilant.”
A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile rolls through Moscow during a rehearsal for a military parade. Photographer: SOPA Images/LightRocket
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