本文由 Jingyi 翻译完成。
译文
中国私募领域走弱,很大的利益相关在于,这个时代都是高薪工人。
习近平主席重塑时间第二个经济体,以及许多行业,例如金融、消费电子产品,以及财产 —— 增长的关键变量,现在已经没那么赞同(out of favor)。取而代之的,资源也逐渐漏向在这些行业努力之人,例如电动汽车,或者芯片领域。“高质量”增长是新的咒语,并非“高速度”增长。
out of favor 没那么赞同
funneled toward 漏向
new mantra 新的咒语
当场,对于行业中数以百万计随波逐流的人来说,前景的暗淡的。这些行业的中年,正在面临巨大(首当其冲)的负担。
the picture is bleak 前景是暗淡的
cast adrift 随波逐流
the brunt of the burden 首当其冲的负担
很多诸如失业的风险,薪资缩减(甚至是索回),或者无力还按揭,更不用说小孩子,或者年迈的亲戚,这些人都需要帮助的 —— 这一代人,都终其一生与危机斗争。
clawbacks 索回
not to mention 更不用说
有个人曾在地产行业工作,也只收到一些工作机会,而他面试了 70 多场面试,然后有些 Offer 还会撤销。另一个人,曾经几乎卖掉价值 1 万亿元的碧桂园,现在在兜售保健品,在社交媒体上。有些人在国有支持的金融机构,正面临 40% 薪资缩减,与此同时,外企也在撤退,还裁员。
rescinded 撤销
Country Garden 碧桂园
is now peddling health supplements 现在正在兜售保健品
health supplements 保健品
这掀起了一场风波,关于人们(如何)处理精神健康相关问题,或者他们的婚姻。有些人直接服用安眠药,来应付焦虑和情绪低落。
这一中国巨大变化的核心,这十年来,也是部分价值链的断裂,这些价值链存在权力机关,与在改革浪潮中成长起来的一代人。他们正在适应中国,和西方社会逐渐衔接,特别在退休、资本、价值问题上。他们所知的世界,称赞个人理想,关于“企业家精神”的想法,以及财富积累。但是,现在变得富有没有那么闪耀了。
laud 称赞,赞美
所有这些都强调了一些严肃的问题,不仅对于中国,也对于世界。关于以下事情的不适感,即感受许多国家的高等教育的工人的风险,加剧了笼罩了 18 万亿美元的经济阴霾。
The sense of malaise 疟疾感,形容不舒服的感觉。
exacerbate the gloom envelope something 加剧了笼罩 …… 的阴霾
公平地说,有些挑战,中国长期以来都是经历着的,这是结构性问题 —— 老化的人口,以及过度依赖债务,点燃了不可持续的财产增值。ShoelessCai 评注,关于这一点,本站持保留观点。
然而,什么事更加清晰了?由于那些人自认为是终身职业,以及他们于富裕中产中的地位,也只是肥皂泡沫。
was a moment in a bubble 也只是肥皂泡
你将会知道的资讯
- 环保车革命正在远离中国贫穷社区
- Ray Dalio 说,中国“真正问题”,仍然只让你知道很少一部分
- 纸媒士兵,一本关于美元兵器化的书,已经出版中文版
- 见证中国如何从彭博年度评选中获益
- 新竞赛的内核是什么,可能要回到登月时期
并没有那么金光闪闪的一年
关于许多中国人的退休梦想可能要等了。
政策制定者已然证明一项计划,推动继续开展退休计划,长达 5 年,帮助处理中国缩减的劳动力问题,以及支持奖金体系。男人们将会在 63 岁退休,而非 60 岁,女人将于 55 岁退休,而非 50 岁,这是普通工人的标准。即便没多久之后就会成为经理。
这是 1978 年以来首次退休年龄推迟,那时候中国主要更接近农耕社会,在邓小平时代。以及平均生命预期只有 66 岁。如今,正是制造业工厂的力量,使得预期寿命推高至 78 岁,与发达经济体相似,发达经济体的人 60 退休。
agrarian society 农耕社会
延迟退休也是非常残酷的,对于处理人口统计学的挑战来说,由于单孩政策,这使得这一带的人很多只有一个小孩,现在都要为支持持续增长的老龄化人口负责。鼓励生育的力量,并未产生不同,去年出生率也很低。
中国最高立法者主要人员也说 ,员工将会需要贡献更多,来支持其将收到的养老金账户,他们尚未开始收获养老金。随着养老金账户日渐干涸(with the pension pot running dry),整个国家处于压力中,以筹集到足够资金,以支持去迅速增长的老龄化人口。
with the pension pot running dry 随着养老金账户日渐干涸
尽管退休年龄将会进一步提升,在未来 15 年,从今年 1 月开始,很多人非常生气,因为他们必须工作更久。他们由于要面临更多竞争,而使得别人(政策制定者)担忧。特别经济放缓,未来前景看上去不明朗。
他们关于中国媒体的不满是显然的,而中国媒体始终可以让新的快速传播的新闻,变成一股热潮,聚集起数千亿关注,在几小时之内。
rack up 企业实现利润,惨遭亏损等
“你在问我,我 60 岁时候,如何和年轻人竞争工作吗?”一个微博用户说到,TA 在 X-like 社交媒体上如此评论道。
另一个人说到,“我出生时候,他们说他们这样的人很多。我生小孩时候,他们说他们人数太少了。当我想要工作时候,他们说我太老了。以及,当我退休了,他们说我太年轻。”
一项每周看点,已然成为中国的冷凝剂。中国官方正在寻找新方法,使得经济是数据变好看 —— 并且这次,也不会像 Kanye West 那样(评注,这人是美国歌手)。
juice the economy 刺激经济
这位美国 Rapper,现在广为人知的名字是 Ye。周日在中国开唱了,这是 16 年来首次与中国国开唱,给到中国歌迷诸多惊喜。
一些互联网用户甚至开玩笑,Ye 已然签署了香港的演唱会合同,还错误地相信,这一事件涉及香港更多的行事自由。然而,这一现象于海口确实实现了,惊动海南省管辖的及骨干。
Ye 其实也不是美国唯一的名人,在这座小镇。Mariah Garey 举行了为期 2 天的音乐会,本周于北京召开,甚至可能到长城开唱,穿 6 英寸的高跟鞋。烟鬼组合在中国也要开演唱会,首场于苏州,其次是北京。
人们充分利用了音乐会的商业价值(wave concert merchandise),因为此前他们还在石家庄的 Rock Home 听了现场演唱会,2023 年的事情。照片由彭博社 Andrea 拍摄。
这一阵演唱会之风,很可能并非中国的中年官员们的热爱,而是经济因素将这些演唱者吸引至中国。与此同时,缓慢消费正在增长,主要开支在旅游、音乐会,这些都是最近几年显示出的亮点。
flurry 慌张,疾风
sluggish 缓慢,呆滞
所有 4.2 万张门票,关于 Ye 演唱会,于几分钟内一扫而空,大多数买家来自上海、广州、深圳。海南旅游局认为,这场音乐会将产生 5100 万元门票收入。
可能,官方认为一些国际化歌手在经济放缓的时候,也不会带来伤害。Ye 演唱会一敲定,海南官方就宣布,本周末有另一场秀。
原文
China’s weakening private sector has put a lot at stake for a generation of its best-paid workers.
As President Xi Jinping reshapes the world’s second-largest economy, industries such as finance, consumer tech and property — key drivers of growth for much of this century — are now out of favor. Instead, resources are funneled toward endeavors such as electric vehicles and chip production. “High quality” growth is the new mantra, not “high speed.”
On the ground, the picture is bleak for millions of people in sectors now cast adrift. Middle-aged people in these industries are facing the brunt of the burden.
With threats like job losses, salary cuts (or even clawbacks) and missed mortgages — not to mention children and older folks who need supporting — a generation of people are dealing with a crisis in their personal lives.
One person who used to work in real estate received only a few job offers after 70 interviews – then the offers were rescinded. Another who once sold almost 1 billion yuan ($141 million) of property for Country Garden is now peddling health supplements on social media. Some people in state-backed finance firms are facing up to 40% cuts in pay, while foreign companies retreating from the country are laying off staff.
That’s led to a wave of people dealing with issues related to mental health or their marriage. Some are turning to sleeping pills to cope with anxiety and depression.
At the heart of the biggest changes in China in decades, there’s also a clash of values between those in power and the generation of people who grew up in the reform era. They are accustomed to a China that integrated with Western societies in terms of retail, capital and values. The world they knew lauded individual ambition, the idea of “the entrepreneur” and wealth accumulation. But it’s no longer glorious to get rich.
All of this underscores a serious problem for China and the world. The sense of malaise among many of the country’s best-educated workers risks exacerbating the gloom enveloping China’s $18 trillion economy.
To be fair, some of the challenges that China is experiencing stem from long-term structural problems — its aging population and its overreliance on debt that fueled an unsustainable property boom.
Yet what’s becoming clearer for these people is that what they thought of as a lifelong career and their status in an affluent middle class was a moment in a bubble.
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Not-So-Golden Years
The dream of retirement for many Chinese people will just have to wait.
Lawmakers have approved a plan to push back retirement by up to five years to help deal with China’s shrinking workforce and support the pension system. Men will retire at 63 instead of 60, and women at 55 instead of 50 for ordinary workers (even later if they’re managers).
This is the first increase in the retirement age since 1978, when China was mainly an agrarian society under Deng Xiaoping, and the average life expectancy was just 66. Today, it’s a manufacturing powerhouse with life expectancy reaching 78, similar to developed economies where people often retire well into their 60s.
Delaying retirement is also crucial for tackling the demographic challenges caused by the one-child policy, which resulted in a generation of single children now responsible for supporting a growing elderly population. Efforts to encourage more births haven’t made much difference, with the fewest babies born last year.
China’s top legislative body also said that employees will need to contribute more to their pension accounts before they can start receiving benefits. With the pension pot running dry, the country is under pressure to build enough of a fund to support its rapidly growing elderly population.
Even though the retirement age will be raised gradually over 15 years starting in January, many people are upset about having to work longer. They’re worried about facing more competition for jobs, especially with the economy slowing down and future prospects looking less promising.
Their dissatisfaction is clear on Chinese social media, where the news quickly became a top trending topic, racking up over half a billion views within a few hours.
“Are you asking me, when I’m 60, to compete with young people for jobs?” a Weibo user said on the X-like social media platform.
Another one said: “When I was born they said there were too many. When I gave birth they said there were too few. When I wanted to work they said I was too old.And when I retire they say I’m too young.’’
A weekly look at an item that’s been big water cooler news in China. Chinese officials are finding new ways to juice the economy — and this time it’s in the form of Kanye West.
The American rapper, now known as Ye, performed in China on Sunday for the first time in 16 years to the surprise of Chinese fans.
That’s partly because of US-China tensions over issues ranging from Taiwan to technology, and also because Ye has attractedcontroversy for his antisemitic comments. That surely wouldn’t sit well with Chinese censors, which have previously banned Justin Bieber for his “bad behavior,” restricted Hollywood films and cracked down on the display of tattoos in public media.
Some Internet users even joked that Ye had signed up for a concert in “HK,” mistakenly believing it referred to the more freewheeling Hong Kong, when it actually meant Haikou, the capital of Hainan province in mainland China.
Ye isn’t the only American celebrity in town. Mariah Carey held a two-day concert in Beijing this week, and even climbed the Great Wall of China in six-inch heels. The Chainsmokers also performed in the country, first in Suzhou and then in Beijing.
People wave concert merchandise as they listen to a live performance during Rock Home Town Festival in Shijiazhuang, China, in 2023. Photographer: Andrea Verdelli/Bloomberg
The flurry of concerts is probably not because China’s middle-aged bureaucrats are fans of Western music, but because the economic argument won them over. While sluggish consumption has weighed on growth, spending on experiences like tourism and concerts has emerged as a bright spot.
All 42,000 tickets for Ye’s concert were snapped up within minutes, with most buyers coming from Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Hainan’s tourism bureau said the event generated 51 million yuan ($7 million) of ticket sales.
Perhaps authorities thought a few international performers couldn’t do more damage in the face of an economic slowdown. Almost as soon as Ye’s concert wrapped up, Hainan officials announced another show this weekend.