发表时间：2024.10.09     作者：Jingyi     来源：Bloomberg     阅读：112

封面故事：工人纠察队 Georgia 于今年 10 月 3 日时候，走出萨瓦纳码头。码头工作者走出各个主要码头，在美国东岸，以及墨西哥湾，这是 50 年来的首次。

Workers picket outside of the Port of Savannah in Savannah, Georgia, on Oct. 3. Dockworkers walked out of every major port on the US East and Gulf coasts for the first time in nearly 50 years. Photographer: Parker Puls/Bloomberg

彭博推送 | 日渐写意的美国劳动力市场

劳动力紧张

另一项巨大的、11 月开展的利率缩减，这周似乎正在减弱（这一意愿），因为数据显示就业市场保持恢复力，经济如联储预期地放缓，尚未处于停滞风险。上个月就业增长了，比所有预测数据都高，失业率降低了，工资增长加速。联储主席 Jerome Powell 这周重新确认了，保护劳动力市场的部分原因是因为，联储将开启一个缓和周期（easing cycle），伴随着更加高的降息操作（ShoelessCai 评注，这里暂且认为，降息增加流动性，降低市场的“钱少”的压力）。数据是受欢迎的，对于 Powell 及其同事来说是这样，这些人显然不希望进一步的就业市场冷却。这些数据也支持了这样的期待，人们期待“联储试图清除最后一波残余通胀”的软着陆。但是，新数据也是提示，即“通胀没有消失”Mohamed 说到。政策制定者，以及拜登政府，还延伸到副总统 Harris，获得更多好消息，当东海岸以及海峡码头工作者，同意结束一项 3 天的罢工，这次罢工威胁到同时期的交易。

jumbo-sized 巨型尺寸
at risk of stalling 经济停滞风险
kick off 开球，开启
easing cycle 缓和循环。currency ease out stage
no further cooling of job market 进一步的就业市场冷却
stamp out 消灭，根除
vestiges inflation 残余通货膨胀
vestiges 遗迹，残余

当大规模裁员（mass firings）尚未成为美国劳动力市场变冷的主要特征，除了大型科技公司、华尔街的公司。他们在其他国家找人。三星在东南亚及大洋洲裁员，在他们自己国家不裁员。以及，大众汽车在中国裁员，考虑关闭德国工厂。欧盟方面，投票决定征税多大 45%，主要在来自中国的电动汽车，威胁到更多和中国的贸易。这些交易都是保护这些公司的。中国否认欧盟的声称，内容是他们补贴其行业，威胁到他们自己的税收，关于欧洲乳业、白兰地酒、猪肉、汽车的税收。中国在其自己国家有更大问题，他们出版了一系列刺激政策，来帮助其聚集下落经济。

workers picket 工人纠察队
Gulf Coast 墨西哥湾
Oceania 大洋洲
shuttering 快门
subsidizing 补贴
flagging economy 下落的经济

这周你需要知道的

以色列准备一项报复性打击，以惩罚伊朗，因为他们投掷了 200 个导弹，投向以色列，报复行为本身是为了以色列提升，包括杀害真主党、哈马斯领导人，以及一个伊朗上校，还有其（以色列）对黎巴嫩的侵袭。尽管有很多令人恐慌的地区战争，在中东地区，从 “这场战役持续多久” 到 “战役有多大的破坏性” 都是问题，最紧急的还是，以色列接下来的动作是什么。超过 4.1 万人在 Gaza 丧生，超过 1200 人在黎巴嫩丧生，1200 人在以色列丧生，自动哈马斯攻击以色列以来。以色列周五空袭了贝鲁特郊区，据报道，这是试图谋杀哈桑继承者的一部分，哈桑是真主党主要人员，上周被谋杀了。油价激增了，因为市场对罢工是有所准备的，伊朗石油基础设施领域的罢工。拜登总统反复强调，全球担忧显著上升，说到以色列应该与伊朗核武器武装力量保持距离。一支核武器装备的伊朗队伍，不会变得更加接近，Marc Champion 在彭博意见中写道。彻底清除这些事情可能不太可能，以及试图毁坏它以及失败即触发一项伊朗的立即爆破。

poised to launch a retaliatory strike 计划一项报复性打击
barrage 水坝、拦河坝；以密集火力攻击
escalation 升级，增加
Hezbollah 真主党
the outskirts of Beirut 贝鲁特郊区
Hassan Nasrallah 哈桑 纳斯鲁拉，生前系黎巴嫩真主党总书记。
hold off from 保持距离

有 Elon 在自己身边，特朗普回到了 Butler，宾夕法尼亚。此前一位暗杀者差点夺取他的生命。这现在是不同的竞争了，即便宾夕法尼亚事件仍然让人惊讶（remains the big prize），且离我们生活很接近（is exceedingly close） —— 就像所有竞争一样。现在我们关注 11 月 5 日周五的积极的劳动数据，这些数据吹嘘 Harris 在经济方面的斗争，看点（issue on）在于民意测验目前为止还是偏向特朗普的。她还获得了 Bruce Springsteen（美国摇滚歌手） 背书，还和共和党 Liz 一起开展政治拉票活动，在 Wisconsin。前总统奥巴马说到，接下来他会花 4 周的时间，绞尽脑汁地提出一位 59 岁民主党提名人，显然从宾夕法尼亚开始。78 岁的特朗普，正在找寻方法，找到女性的关键弱点，现在他发现他要否决任何的“禁止堕胎”，尽管他之前表示可能支持，以及负责（更多是容许 take credit for）最高法院提名者，这些人助力 韦德 事件爆出。在首场、副总统辩论中，明尼苏达的 Tim Walz 强调了观点，反对俄亥俄议员 JD Vance，关于否认选举。正如往常，特别是今年，竞争即金钱。

a would-be assassin 潜在的刺客
take one's life 夺取生命
scramble 争夺，迅速而吃力地爬
stumping for 把 …… 难住。这里翻译成“绞尽脑汁地”，费尽心思地提一位 nominee。
veto 否决权
be responsible for 对……负责
take credit for 释放自己允许某事的额度，这里译为“容许”。

随着前副总统 Mike Pence 面临物理攻击，2021 年 1 月 6 日的攻击，由特朗普支持者实施，在美国首都发生。特朗普当时回应“so what”。该事件依据最新揭示的法庭档案，档案中联邦检察官保持着其观点，即认为特朗普应该接受审判，针对其“私人犯罪”，即试图抹去 2020 年的选举资料。但是如果特朗普今年 11 月获胜了，这项案件可能被撤销，特朗普也承诺会报复。针对那些关于民主党未来持沮丧观点的人，还是有希望的，彭博意见记者 Francis Wilkinson 写道。

stand trial for 接受审判。这里的原意应该是“stand out for trial”
retributio 报复
despondent 沮丧的

软银创始人 Masayoshi Son，是 AI 传道者，认为该项技术会很快奔向人们家庭生活。AI 宠儿英伟达扩张了合作关系，主要来自于技术咨询 埃森哲，这也是该公司积极采纳 AI 技术表现之一，在商业领域是这样的。OpenAI 方面，完成了一项交易，新一轮融资 6.6 亿美元，使得该公司成为三家最大的由 VC 支撑的创业公司之一，另外两家 是 SpaceX 和 TikTok 母公司字节跳动。还有叛逆之人吗？为什么答案是肯定的？（Why, yes.）MIT 教授 Daron 认为，AI 可能达不到炒作的预期。所有工种只有一小部分，大约只有 5%，成熟到可以被接手（被 AI 接手工作，即被 AI 替代），他评估到。“很多钱都浪费了，” Acemoglu 说到，“你不可能通过这 5% 的工种，去获得经济革命的胜利”。

evangelist 传道者
contrarians 叛逆之人
be little chance AI will live up to the hype 不太可能满足炒作的预期

预测者已经警告了好多天了，Helene 飓风很可能造成大面积灾难。但是，当这些强劲的风暴席卷佛罗里达的时候，以及上周风卷残云般地扫过美国东部的时候，这仍然足以被称为是一场“冲击”。针对整个美国而言，自然灾害正在变得越来越昂贵，以及更加常见，（受制于）全球气候变暖。当然，人类延续还指望着水源，全球淡水储蓄快速缩减。现在，全球一半人口，面临水资源稀缺。最近电视剧，The Future with Hannah Fry，探索了技术是如何被使用，如何用于维护危险增加的循环。

barreled through 飞驰而过，风卷残云

Original

Labor Intensive

The chance of another jumbo-sized US interest-rate cut in November diminished this week with data showing the job market remains resilient and the economy—slowing as desired by the Federal Reserve—isn’t at risk of stalling. Job growth last month topped all estimates, the unemployment rate declined and wage growth accelerated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week reaffirmed that shielding the labor market was part of the reason why the Fed decided to kick off its easing cycle with a larger rate cut. The data is a welcome development for Powell and his colleagues, who apparently seek no further cooling of the job market. The figures also support hopes for a soft landing as the Fed tries to stamp out the last vestiges inflation. But the new numbers are also a reminder that “inflation is not dead,” said Mohamed El-Erian. Policymakers—and the Biden administration, and by extension Vice President Kamala Harris—got even more good news when East Coast and Gulf dockworkers agreed to end a three-day strike that threatened to paralyze trade.

Whi1le mass firings haven’t been a main feature of labor-market cooling in the US (except across Big Tech and Wall Street anyway) they’re picking up in other countries. Samsung is terminating employees in Southeast Asia and Oceania (but not at home in South Korea) and Volkswagen is firing workers in China and considering shuttering plants in Germany. The European Union, for its part, voted to impose tariffs as high as 45% on electric vehicles from China, threatening a broader trade conflict with Beijing, which has already vowed to protect its companies. China denies EU claims that it has been subsidizing its industries and threatened its own tariffs on European dairy, brandy, pork and cars. China has even bigger problems at home, as it rolls out a series of stimulus measures to help shore up its flagging economy.

What you’ll want to read this weekend

Israel appears poised to launch a retaliatory strike to punish Iran for the barrage of 200 missiles it fired this week into Israel, itself retaliation for Israeli escalation including the killing of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders and an Iranian general, as well as its invasion of Lebanon. Now that the much-feared regional war in the Middle East has arrived, the questions range from how long it will last to how deadly it will be—and, most immediately, what Israel will do next. More than 41,000 people have been killed in Gaza, more than 1,200 in Lebanon and 1,200 in Israel in the year since Hamas attacked Israel. Israeli airstrikes on Friday targeted the outskirts of Beirut, reportedly as part of an attempt to kill the successor to Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah chief Israel assassinated last week. Oil surged as the market braced for possible strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure. President Joe Biden echoed global worries about significant escalation, saying Israel should hold off from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. A nuclear armed Iran has never been closer, Marc Champion writes in Bloomberg Opinion. Eliminating its program is probably impossible, and to try to destroy it and fail is almost guaranteed to trigger an Iranian dash for the bomb.

With Elon Musk by his side, Donald Trump is to return to Butler, Pennsylvania, where a would-be assassin came close to taking the former president’s life. It’s a different race now, even if Pennsylvania remains the big prize and is exceedingly close—like the overall race itself. It’s now a scramble to Nov. 5. Friday’s positive labor data bolstered Harris ’s fight on the economy, an issue on which polls until recently favored Trump. She also picked up the endorsement of Bruce Springsteen and campaigned with Republican Liz Cheney in swing-state Wisconsin. Former President Barack Obama said he’ll spend the next four weeks stumping for the 59-year-old Democratic nominee, starting of course in Pennsylvania. Trump, 78, seeking to blunt a key weakness among women, now vows he’d veto any abortion ban, despite previously saying he might support one, and being responsible for (and often taking credit for) the Supreme Court nominees who helped throw out Roe v. Wade. In the first and only vice presidential debate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz scored a point against Ohio Senator JD Vance on election denialism. As always, but especially this year, the race is about money. Here’s your guide to its massive role in American politics.

As former Vice President Mike Pence faced physical danger during the Jan. 6, 2021 attack by Trump followers on the US Capitol, Trump said “so what?” That’s according to a newly unsealed court filing in which federal prosecutors maintain Trump should stand trial for his “private crimes” in trying to nullify the 2020 election. But if Trump wins in November, the case is likely to be dropped, and Trump has promised retribution. As for those despondent about the future of democracy, Francis Wilkinson writes for Bloomberg Opinion that there’s still hope.

SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son, an artificial intelligence evangelist, thinks the technology will soon run households. AI darling Nvidia expanded a partnership with technology consultant Accenture as part of an effort to drive adoption of AI within businesses. OpenAI, for its part, completed a deal to raise $6.6 billion in new funding, making the firm one of the three largest venture-backed startups, alongside SpaceX and TikTok owner ByteDance. Any contrarians out there? Why, yes. MIT professor Daron Acemoglu thinks there’s little chance AI will live up to the hype. Only a small percent of all jobs —a mere 5%—are ripe to be taken over, he estimates. “A lot of money is going to get wasted,” says Acemoglu. “You’re not going to get an economic revolution out of that 5%.0”

Forecasters had warned for days that Hurricane Helene was likely to cause widespread devastation. But when the powerful storm struck Florida and barreled through the eastern US last week, it still managed to come as a shock. Across the US, natural catastrophes are becoming more expensive and more common, supercharged by global warming. Of course, humanity’s survival depends on water, yet global reserves are rapidly shrinking. Now, half of the world’s population is facing water scarcity. The latest episode of The Future with Hannah Fry explores how technology may be used to reverse an increasingly dire spiral.

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