发表时间：2024.10.23     作者：Jingyi     来源：ShoelessCai     阅读：217

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下一站中国，似乎似曾相识

欢迎来到彭博专题，下一站中国，我们将深度关注中国，这个经济巨头。

这周，我们又开始钻研中国的平等集会，关于欧盟新能源汽车，和翻墙人数达到顶峰。我是 Allen Wan。

近几周中国股市开始上涨，因为中国领导人开启了刺激政策，以及勉强获得（cough up）比较好的效果。此时，我怎么觉得有些似曾相识的感觉。

我是彭博股票的编辑，当时 2015 年的时候股市飞涨，上海成分指数飞涨，飞跃了 5000 点，在六月的时候，但是 8 月的时候却跌了 40%。

问题在于，现在所有人的想法，关于是否震撼全世界的集会，这一次是可持续的，随着策略师的名单持续增长，同时他们还修正了熊市预测。

或者，我们现在回到那个关键的夏天，疯狂的麦克斯，《狂暴之路》出现在大屏幕上，以及股票也受到挫折，通过他们自己“后启示录”噩梦，这会导致失落的十年。

delve 挖掘
delve into 钻研，深入研究
take a peek over the Great Firewall 翻墙人数达到顶峰
cough up 淘出，勉强获得
post-apocalyptic 后启示录
a lost decade 失落的十年

这次的利益是很高，因为全世界第二大经济体陷入一场通缩的低迷情绪，政府也面临了失去其增长目标的风险，大约降低 5% 增长预期，一些敏感（bouyant）的股票市场，将会提供震荡来欢迎股民，因其收入增长和财产价值没到位，使得股民信心产生波动。

doldrums 低迷

乐观主义者会认为，股票更加便宜了。2015 年时候达到顶峰，上海的交易量五年来已经翻一番了。科技股票平均交易量是 220 次，这些利润在达到顶峰之前就已经被写在报告里，远比 2000 年互联网泡沫时期更甚，这是其交易对手美国遇到的情况。

“中国股票仍然不贵，尽管最近有融合上升迹象。”彭博意见写道。

高盛这周提升其呼吁增持中国股市的意见，同时，同时强调廉价估值。进一步的 15-20% 的收益也是可能的，如果官方会在政策上有所变动。银行写道。

关于更高层次的帮助其实是不清晰的，上个月政府简报出具了一系列的方式，点燃了市场的兴奋，但是本周另一些停止了供给不足，他们本来大量供给失望的投资人。

然而，另一个记者发布会计划于周六开展，由财政部举办。这些也激发了赌博，关于官方会出手援助。投资人和分析师期待中国部署多达 2 万亿元，于新鲜的财政刺激，他们在简报中写道。

我曾经聊过一个交易员，通常都在 2015 年这样疯狂的交易日，他告诉这些股票聚集（现象）会有一些可能性，如果政府宣布于本周末宣布大量的刺激。尽管他担忧，那些过度依赖政府出台内容的，并非完全健康的方法，去发展一个市场。

现在我们需要做什么？

欧盟决策打击到了中国的新能源汽车市场，同时，关税也把球投到北京的球场上（暗指主动找比赛的意思）。由其过去的表现来看，北京会反击的。关键是，什么时候，以及到怎样的程度。

has put the ball in Beijing’s court 把球投到北京的球场上

本周，中国声称他们会探索，是否要提升欧盟进口商品大引擎新能源车的关税，以及征收白兰地税。这也意味着，海关会调查猪肉，以及奶制品。这给到中国一系列的选择，影响到欧洲不同的地方。

collecting levies on brandy 征收白兰地酒的税

十个国家，包括意大利、法国、波兰，投票决定关税，同时，德国是强力推进更加缓和的做法，以及投票反对对其他四个成员国进行征税。其他12个成员国，例如西班牙，就放弃了。

布鲁塞尔和中国保持对话，找到关税的其他方案。方法是，探索一项交易是否能触达，控制价格及征税目录当中的出口量。没有交易的话，关税11月到期，持续 5 年法律效力。

奶制品也是有风险的，随着荷兰、法国、爱尔兰都处于中国的关键欧盟供应商。欧盟已然在挑战中国的调查，关于奶制品在 WTO 领的津贴，首次采取这样的措施，调查开始时候实施，而非等到决定交易方式是反对欧盟区的时候再采取措施。

中国也警告，欧盟将失去中国新能源车公司的投资，以及其改善自身汽车行业的机会，如果关税方案被接受的话。

同时，中国最大程度的愤怒，至今是未知的。这也是很清晰的，区域内贸易紧张，会在可预见的将来持续着。

wrath 愤怒

中国多少新的亿万富翁，由中国的股票上涨，将其弹射到世界最富有人群的范畴，这是本周的重点之一。财富的获得，意味着剧烈的倒转（sharp reversal）来自亿万富翁，涉及近几年中国大亨的财富，由于房地产危机，以及在技术金融领域的行业进步。

catapulted 弹射
Chinese moguls 中国大亨

在长城防火墙背后

每周观看关于中国冷凝机（big water cooler）的新闻

中国刚从国庆假期中恢复，然后及时准备去在周六工作（加班加点），财政部也会举办万众期待的（much-anticipated）新闻发布会。

为什么是这些？感谢提问。

1990 年后期的时候，中国出台调休政策，这部分可以被翻译为“调整休息”。

基本上，政策见证了重新安排工作日，在节假日周围，因此人们可以拥有更长的假期。替代了更加随意的周中的请假，假设周四是假期，那么工作者、学生都能够获得一系列 3 天假期。最近的国庆节的 7 天。

合并休假，对于城际间的迁徙者是更轻松的，使其能够长距离回家看亲戚，另一方面，也正值中秋。

1999 年的时候是很好的想法，这个国家刚经历亚洲金融危机，以及官方想要刺激消费。在中国环游，那时候也更加困难，因为当时高速铁路网络还在婴儿期。

这些现状的代价，就是人们必须要在周末工作，使得调休起作用。这是为什么很多学校和办公楼在周末时候也对外开放。

周末工作，在中国已然不流行，就像其在世界其他地方那样。去年能听到很多抱怨，国庆休假前，要一连工作好几天。

consolidated time off 合并休假。solid 加固，一起加固，即合并 consolidate
grumbling 抱怨。crumbling 坍塌，grumbling crumbling 抱怨坍塌

重新安排的日历，足以引起困惑，生产力也产生冲击，因为员工会更加不积极，工作时候总是想着休息。

being at work on what’s typically a day of rest 工作时候总是想着休息

经常有人呼吁（call for）官方取消调休，“我真的很讨厌这种不人道的做法（inhuman practice）。”一个微博用户写到，在一些公平反馈的抱怨信上，“为什么政府忽略人们关于这个议题的声音？”

然而，还是很多人喜欢这政策的，例如，一连休息 7 天可以旅游，泰国、日本、新加坡。不可能很快消失。

原文

Next China: Deja Vu

Welcome to Next China. Each week, we take you inside the economic giant that is China. To subscribe to this newsletter directly, click here.

This week, we delve into China’s equities rally, the dispute with the EU over electric vehicles and take a peek over the Great Firewall.

Hi, I’m Allen Wan in Shanghai.

With the Chinese stock market soaring over the past few weeks on President Xi Jinping’s stimulus extravaganza and then coughing up some big gains, I can’t help but feel a bit of déjà vu.

I was a Bloomberg stocks editor during the boom and bust of 2015, when the Shanghai Composite Index soared above the 5,000 level in June only to tumble more than 40% by late August.

The question on everybody’s minds now is whether the world-beating rally this time around is sustainable as a growing list of strategists revise their bearish forecasts.

Or are we back to that fateful summer when Mad Max: Fury Road was on big screens and stocks were suffering through their own post-apocalyptic nightmare that would lead to a lost decade?

The stakes are pretty high this time around. With the world’s second-biggest economy in the deflationary doldrums and the government in danger of missing its growth target of about 5% this year, a buoyant stock market would provide a welcome jolt of confidence in the absence of rising incomes and property values.

One reason for optimism now is stocks look cheaper. At the peak in 2015, the Shanghai gauge traded at nearly twice its five-year average. Tech stocks traded at an average of 220 times reported profits even before the peak, blowing away US counterparts at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

“Chinese equities are still not expensive despite the recent melt-up,” Bloomberg Opinion columnist Shuli Ren wrote recently.

upgrade call on Chinese stocks to overweight

Goldman Sachs this week upgraded its call on Chinese stocks to overweight, while highlighting cheap valuations. A further 15-20% gain is possible, if the authorities deliver on their policy measures, the bank’s strategists wrote.

The extent of the help coming from on high is unclear. A government briefing last month rolling out a host of measures got the excitement started but another one this week that stopped short of offering a large degree of support disappointed investors.

Yet another press conference planned for Saturday by the Ministry of Finance has spurred bets that officials will ride to the rescue. Investors and analysts expect China to deploy as much as 2 trillion yuan ($283 billion) in fresh fiscal stimulus at the briefing.

One trader I used to talk to frequently during those wild days back in 2015 told me this stocks rally could have legs if the government announces sizeable stimulus this weekend. He worried, though, that depending too much on what officials roll out isn’t exactly a healthy way to develop a market.

Now What?

The European Union’s decision to hit Chinese electric vehicles with tariffs has put the ball in Beijing’s court. Judging by past performance, Beijing will retaliate. The only questions are when and to what degree.

China already said this week it would probe whether to boost tariffs on imports of Europe’s large-engine vehicles and start collecting levies on brandy. It has also said it would investigate pork and dairy products. That gives Beijing a range of options that would affect different parts of Europe.

Those moves came after the European Union decided to impose tariffs of as high as 45% on imports of China’s EVs, the biggest escalation in trade tensions between the two sides in years.

Ten countries, including Italy, France and Poland, voted for the tariffs, while Germany pushed hard for a softer approach and voted against the levies along with four other member states. Twelve others, such as Spain, abstained.

Brussels and Beijing will keep talking to find an alternative to the tariffs. The sides are exploring whether a deal can be reached on a way to control prices and volumes of exports in place of the duties. Without a deal, the tariffs are due by November and would be in force for five years.

Pork is likely one of the sectors most vulnerable to China’s response. Should Beijing’s inquiry lead to tariffs, the impact will be focused on major suppliers like Spain but also Denmark and the Netherlands, which supported the EV decision.

Dairy is also at risk, with the Netherlands, France and Ireland among China’s key EU suppliers. The EU is already challenging China’s investigation into dairy subsidies at the World Trade Organization — the first time it’s taken such action at the start of the inquiry rather than wait for it to result in trade measures against the bloc.

Beijing has also warned that EU will lose investment from Chinese EV firms and the opportunity to transform its own car industry, if the tariffs are adopted.

While the full extent of Beijing’s wrath isn’t known yet, it’s pretty clear that trade tensions with the bloc will persist into the foreseeable future.

That’s how many new billionaires that China’s stocks rally catapulted back into the ranks of the world’s wealthiest at one point this week. The wealth gains mark a sharp reversal from the billions that were wiped from the fortunes of many Chinese moguls in recent years due to the real estate crisis and crackdowns on sectors including technology and finance.

Behind the Great Firewall

A weekly look at an item that’s been big water cooler news in China.

China just returned from a long break to mark its National Day and then promptly prepared to work on a Saturday – when the Ministry of Finance will hold that much-anticipated press briefing.

Why’s that? Well, thanks for asking.

Back in the late 1990s, China launched its policy of tiaoxiu, which can be translated to something like “adjusted rest.”

Basically, the policy sees the government rearrange days around public holidays so people get a longer break. So instead of a random day off midweek because a holiday falls on a Thursday, office workers and students get three days in a row off. And the recent National Day break was seven days long.

The consolidated time off can make it easier for rural migrants to make the long trip home to see relatives on the other side of the country over Lunar New Year, for example.

Back in 1999 that seemed like a good idea. The country was coming off the Asian Financial Crisis and officials wanted to boost consumption. Travel around China was also a lot harder back then because the high-speed rail network was still in its infancy.

The trade-off is that people have to work weekend days to make tiaoxiu work. Hence the reason many offices and classrooms will be open this Saturday.

Working on weekends is just as unpopular in China as it is in many other parts of the world. Much grumbling could be heard last year when the National Day break was followed by a long run of work days.

The rearranged calendar can cause some confusion, and productivity takes a hit because employees are less than enthused about being at work on what’s typically a day of rest.

There are frequent calls for officials to get rid of tiaoxiu. “I really hate the inhuman practice,” one Weibo user said in a fairly representative complaint this year. “Why does the government ignore the voice of the people on this issue?”

Still, many people like the policy — seven-day breaks sure are good for trips to say, Thailand, Japan or Singapore — and it’s unlikely to disappear anytime soon.

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