由 Jingyi 翻译,百度翻译助力。
译文
01 追踪社会不满的“异议”
你好,我是 Rebecca Choong Wilkins,驻扎在香港,这里其他地方咿呀,我试图指出,关于我们支持自己祖国的程度,中国即将推出系列政策,针对陷入困境的经济。
关于回答这个问题的秘密。可能在于在加拿大的、持不同政见的人,他还有只猫。
因此,据说资本管理者,这些人正在加紧寻找方法,关于社会不满意的分歧,以此来决定,是否以及何时中国可能撬动所谓的火箭筒刺激。
bazooka 火箭筒
dissident 持不同政见的人
麻烦在于,大多数应付不满意的直接的方法 —— 抗议 —— 依赖所搜集的最硬核、最风险的信息。
Lu yuyu,这人是中国一个免费数据库的编篡者。
每天大约有 10 小时,有时候由其小猫陪着,这只猫名字 Anthony,以及被一杯咖啡点燃。Lu 在 英特网上翻找,找到集体抗议的证据,在其被勒令撤掉之前。
scours 搜寻,翻找
scrubbed 擦洗,刷洗。例如,scrub the counter
他在一家家庭咖啡馆工作,空间敞亮,灯光灰暗的地下室,在 Calgary。Lu 说到,他解决了住宿的问题,因为这样的住所很难以找到,对宠物非常友好,他起初到来的时候,还是难民身份,一年之前从中国逃离。
fleeing some place 从……逃离
他的任务是很高的。从数十亿社交媒体的照片中筛选,像 Lu 这样的研究人员总是进入一场竞赛,关于如何击败审查员(或者程序),这些审查员(或者程序)能够删除内容,在几分钟之内就能办到,经常改变他们的认为敏感话题的标准。
beat censors 击败审查员
deem sensitive 认为是敏感话题
对于 Lu 来说,搜集他的数据,也是非常危险的。中国曾经将他关进监狱 4 小时,其之前的工作就无用了。
他的数据最近包括在自由之屋中国异议监测,这家机构专注于归档那些监狱中的抗议。由于 Lu 的帮助,他们的发现显示,越发增长的经济不满情绪 —— 议题诸如,不被支付工资的工人,或者买房的人由于没收到交付房屋而表达的愤怒。
这类型的数据,对投资人的吸引力在增加。过去几个月内,我已然处理了更多(无法交付的)问题,这些问题来自于读者的,关于上述议题,多于其他主题。
grievances 痛苦,不满
银行及咨询也在接到通知。九月下旬,Morgan Stanley 发起了自己的指数,包括数据例如工资增长,劳动意外,来 识别潜在的时刻,关于政策的临界点。
仍然,Lu 并没有特别地利益相关,从那些充满财务观点的旁观者的角度而言,这些人也是他所吸引的。对于他而言,政治方面项目是最重要的:提供一系列事务,这些一般人而言,如果不挣扎着争取,可能就会失去的。
tipping points 临界点
“这些数据捕捉,或者保存了图像和声音,关于那些敢于站出来抵制不公平待遇的人”他说到。
02 哪些你该知道的新闻?
(1)1.3 万亿美元的 AI 行业取决于台湾
(2)了解美国如何涵盖中国的敦促,关于科技霸权如何步履蹒跚
(3)听取播客,关于美国如何挣扎着容纳中国的科技兴起
(4)为什么华尔街赌特朗普胜利?
(5)另一个播客:我们开始剖析劳动力市场的大预算
(6)拜登最终确定限定措施:关于美国投资中国芯片,AI 技术
(7)苹果促进印度 iPhone 生产,远离中国
(8)Shuli Ren 意见:特朗普如何获胜,很可能影响刺激计划
(9)Karishma Vaswani 中国如何从美国大选中损失惨重
(10)你听过 K-pop,听过 K-架构 吗?Haslinda Amin 探索了韩国设计浪潮,为彭博写了系列专栏
hinge on 取决于…;以…为转移
supremacy 霸权
faltering 步履蹒跚
dissect 剖析
finalizes curbs 最终确定限定措施
in a shift away from China 远离中国
lose big 损失惨重
03 挑选获奖者
特朗普的胜利,在美国大选的胜利 ,很可能最终对中国的股票市场是向好的。但是,等等,听我们道来。
一方面,这是战略家的观点,从全世界顶级的交易商的交易获得的消息。至少,他们相信中国很快会开启刺激政策,保护最近的股市(股票聚集),在过去几个月,基准股指飙升。
spigots 水龙头
Jefferies 全球股票策略主管,Chistopher Wood,推荐投资人稍微买一些,如果特朗普与其非常接近的竞争对手 Harris 竞争中获胜的话。Wood 说到,特朗普的记录显示了,其“并非像大家所知的那样反对中国”,针对两国最终在 2020 年达成的交易上来看。
尽管可能征收 60% 的中国进口税,也是一个大机会,也是左外野的惊喜,如果特朗普回归总统职位。某种程度,投资人知道,他们在特朗普身上获得什么,因为他们经历了 4 年特朗普的任期:关税、税收减免、减少规则,禁止移民。
left field 左野党
clampdown 禁止
高盛策略师期待,中国股市将在 2-3 个月内提升,在全国人民投票之后,尽管他们警告说特朗普获胜可能会有一系列反应。一边恐慌可能的贸易战爆发会引起风险资产变化,中国的“政策性抛售”会产生刺激性的闪电战,保护了股票投资人,免受价格下降风险。
flare-up 爆发
fuel a shift from risk assets 引起风险资产的转变
a stimulus blitz 刺激闪电战
额外的刺激政策可能是被中国立法支持的,可能发生在下周。
很可能有些最安全的股票看起来很不起眼,即一些科技公司,这行业也是中国现在关注的。最终,中国领导班子已然进步许多,权衡好国家权力和主要行业,关于未来的动作。而在此期间,美国也会加以限制。
在 13 项关键科技指标,由彭博研究院追踪的,中国达到了全球领导地位,关于其中 5 个领域,还在其他 7 个领域,正在快速赶上。
分析师指出,中国太阳能股票,受益于政府处理的过度供给,医疗公司几乎不对美国市场开放,芯片制造商如国际半导体公司,被证实惊喜地活了下来,尽管美国推动限制他们的进步。
原文
01 Tracking Dissent
Hi, I’m Rebecca Choong Wilkins in Hong Kong, where — like everyone else — I’m trying to figure out just how much support Chinese President Xi Jinping will roll out for the beleaguered economy.
The secret to answering that question might lie with a dissident in Canada and his cat.
So say money managers who are increasingly looking at metrics around dissent and social discontent to determine if and when Xi might pivot to so-called bazooka stimulus.
The trouble is the most direct measure of discontent – protest – relies on some of the hardest, and riskiest, information to collect.
Meet Lu Yuyu, compiler of a free database tracking unrest in China.
For about 10 hours each day, sometimes accompanied by his cat Anthony and fueled by coffee, Lu scours the internet for evidence of group protests before it gets scrubbed by Chinese authorities.
He works from a home office in a spacious, poorly lit basement in Calgary. Lu said he settled for the accommodations because it was hard to find a pet-friendly rental when he first arrived as a refugee fleeing the Chinese authorities about a year ago.
His task is tall. Filtering through billions of social media posts, researchers like Lu are often in a race to beat censors, who can delete content in a matter of minutes and are constantly changing what they deem sensitive.
For Lu, collecting this data has also been dangerous. China once handed him a four-year prison sentence that ended an earlier, similar endeavor.
His data was recently included in Freedom House’s China Dissent Monitor, which focuses on documenting in-person protests. With the help of Lu’s work, their findings show a rise in economic grievances — issues like workers demanding unpaid wages or homebuyers voicing anger over undelivered apartments.
This kind of data is increasingly of interest to investors. Over the past few months, I’ve fielded more queries from readers about this issue than any other topic.
Banks and consultancies are taking notice, too. In late September, Morgan Stanley launched its own index that includes data like wage growth and labor incidents to identify a potential moment for policy tipping points.
Still, Lu isn’t particularly phased by the interest from the financially minded audience he has attracted. For him, the political aspect of the project is the most important: providing a record of the struggles of ordinary people that would otherwise be lost.
“It captures and preserves the images and voices of those who bravely stood up to resist unfair treatment,” he said.
What We’re Reading, Listening to and Watching
(1)The $1.3 trillion future of AI increasingly hinges on Taiwan
(2)Read how US efforts to contain Xi’s push for tech supremacy are faltering
(3)Listen to a podcast on how the US is struggling to contain China’s tech rise ...
(4)One on why Wall Street is betting on a Donald Trump victory ...
(5)And another pod where we dissect Labour’s big new budget
(6)Biden finalizes curbs on US investing in Chinese chip, AI technology
(7)Apple boosts India’s iPhone production in a shift away from China
(8)Read an opinion piece by Shuli Ren on how a Trump win may impact stimulus plans
(9)And one by Karishma Vaswani on how Xi will lose big from the US election.
(10)You've heard of K-Pop, but what about K-Architecture? Haslinda Amin explores the Korean design wave for Bloomberg Originals' Momentum series
Picking Winners
A Trump victory in the US presidential election may turn out to be pretty good for Chinese equities ... wait wait, hear us out!
For one thing, it is the view of strategists from some of the world’s top brokerages. At the very least, they believe that Beijing will soon turn on the stimulus spigots, protecting a recent stocks rally that sent a benchmark equities gauge soaring over the past month.
And Jefferies’s global head of equity strategy, Christopher Wood, recommends investors buy the dip if Trump prevails in his exceedingly close race with Kamala Harris. Wood says Trump’s record shows he’s “not as anti-China as he is perceived to be” and points to the trade deal the two sides ultimately worked out in 2020.
Despite a possible 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a solid chance of surprises straight out of left field if Trump returns, to a degree investors know what they’re getting in him because they’ve experienced four years of his governance: tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation and an immigration clampdown.
Goldman Sachs strategists expect Chinese stocks to rise in the two to three months following the vote, though they warn there may be a reaction if Trump wins. While fears of a possible trade war flare-up may fuel a shift from risk assets, a stimulus blitz by Beijing has created a so-called “policy put,” protecting stocks investors against declines, they say.
That extra stimulus may be approved by China’s legislature just next week.
Maybe some of the safest stocks picks are hiding in plain sight – namely companies in tech industries favored by Xi. After all, the Chinese leader has been making progress positioning his nation to dominate industries of the future despite US curbs.
Of 13 key technologies tracked by Bloomberg researchers, China has achieved a global leadership position in five and is catching up fast in seven others.
Analysts are pointing to Chinese solar stocks benefiting from the government tackling oversupply, health-care firms that have little exposure to the US market and chipmakers like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. that have proven to be surprise survivors despite the US push to slow their advances.
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