Cover Story：Illustration: Connor McCann for Bloomberg Businessweek
01 “债券治安会员”正在监视选举日
美国债券规模仍未是个大问题，在总统选举面前，但是这可能卷土重来，一旦新总统被选出。Carter Johnson 今天的报道，写的是关于市
场的信号。加之：如果还尚未看到新车的价格，你可能会惊讶。以及，在 Dalton，Georgia，地毯行业越来越依赖拉丁裔（Latinos），
移民及其小孩。
make a comeback 卷土重来
vigilantes 自发组织的治安会会员
术语“债券治安会员”是用于重新进入椭圆办公室的词典的，无论谁赢得美国的大选。
is poised to 准备做某事
lexicon 词典
Oval Office 总统办公室。白宫椭圆形办公室
这个术语，由老兵 Ed Yardeni 创造的，在 1980 年的时候，专门用于形容发明家，他们擅长并成功地制造，政府和央行的政策，专门关
于 U 型政策（U-turns），通过推动债券价格下调，以及收益提升。后市市场已然地、显然地对鹰派投资人不透明 —— 债券治安 ——
在针对联邦政府罚款的问题上屈服了，因为他们所看到的，是财政数字的上升。这可能会改变， 既不是副总统 哈里斯，也不是前总统特
朗普，来处理美国的堆积如山的债务。Yardeni 这个人，在彭博电视访问上说到，上周他表示这些治安队伍要回归的前景时候。
policy U-turns U 型政策
impervious to 不能渗透的
bent on 弯下腰
固定收益，在今年 10 月的可怕表现，对这一重点提供了支持。彭博自己有衡量美国政府债券的指标，见证美国国债最糟糕的几个月，近
几年来。关于美国 10 年期国债收益上升了 50 个基点，市场跳水了，这件事最有可能和美国经济强劲有关，导致投资人回到了之前的预
期，因此联邦储蓄会在今年大幅减少利率。
lends credence to this notion 对这一观点提供支持
但是，但是，这还是和现在流行的、所谓的特朗普式的交易有关。
投资人看到更大赤字的更大风险，以及可能由于特朗普第二次任总统而再通胀，因为他的经济政策，聚焦于大面积减税和减关税。如果特朗
普胜利的关键考虑点，共和党是否能抓住控制权，关于白宫和议会的控制权，这使得特朗普能够继续很大一部分的财政议程，Noel Dixon
说到。他是宏观经济师，在 State Street Corp. 任职。“这是陌生的领域” Dixon 说到，10 年期国债的收益率可能会超过 5%，在这
个案件中，原来数据 4.3%，依据 Dixon 说法。
uncharted 陌生的
周一的时候，交易商回到上述观点，导致美元债券收益率暴跌，随着他们重新确认，特朗普的就职白宫的路径，原则上因为 Des Moines
Register/Mediacom Iowa 民意测验，显示了 哈里斯 有 3 个点超过特朗普。然而，最近的民意测验暗示了，候选人保持着准备着在竞选
尾声的时候超越。
下一任总统能够向英国寻求警示，关于市场是否愿意接受任何政府的慷慨，说到赤字支出的问题。上一周，财政大臣 Rachel Reeves 展示
其管理工党预算，这是英国议会的任务，包括这些点：财政宽松，这并非投资人期待的。绩优证券市场，以及英国国债引发的政府债券，被
大面积抛售，债券达到一年中最低点。然而，自那以后销量有所下降，所有反应都是聚在一起的，针对之前推出的版本还更加乐观。之前推
出的（抛售）版本，是 Liz Truss 两年前的一个小小的预算失败。
look to the UK for a cautionary tale 向英国寻求警示
largesse 慷慨
fiscal easing 财政宽松
gilts 母猪。绩优证券
sharply sold off 大幅抛售。注意，这里的 sold off 是抛售的意思。
But selling has abated since 但是自那以后，销量有所下降……
sanguine 乐观的
fiasco of 关于……惨败
美国政府提供了关键支持，排除其他债权国的分享机制，全世界范围而言：美钞的现状，即全世界主要储备货币。美钞在价值传递过程中，
相对油腻（即部分会 lag），这是由大多数的全球贸易和金融导致的。
greenback 美钞
Dixon 说到，最终的问题，全球投资人是否持续认为，美国是一个交易的安全可靠的场所。“我们是否将见证，真正地质疑我们自己机构
的一致性？”他问道。“这是很大的尾部风险。一旦基因出了瓶子，就很难以收回来了。”
02 简要要闻
1.Quincy Jones，美国音乐界的文艺复兴者，最近去世，享年 91 岁
2.致命真菌持续爆发，全球范围内，自从 Covid-19 以来
3.典型家庭购物者的年龄，始终保持高位，美国是 56 岁
03 遇见新的二手车买主
Marc Levine 过去常常每三年就要租一辆奔驰运动车，例如 Clockwork。他喜欢开车，开着新车并不担忧维护，或者出现权益不保障的问
题。但是，当他去年返回交易商时候，替代掉他的 2018 GLE 350，他很震惊：更新的版本，通过一个模型，他的每月支付几乎翻倍了，
达到几乎 1200 每个月，原来是 640 美元。
“你在开玩笑吗？” Levine 说到，他是一位心脏病医生，与其家庭住在一块，在南部的佛罗里达，这句话是他的交易商问的。他看到大
众市场品牌，一辆 Jeep Grand Cherokee 以及丰田 Highlander —— 每月月供这些都在上升，接近他之前买的奔驰。最后他问道：“
你有什么二手货吗？”
cardiologist 心脏病医生
You got anything pre-owned? 你有什么二手货吗？
基于此，一辈子的新车买家加入了如今肿胀（swelling）的排名，关于二手车的排名。Levine 购买了一辆 3 年期的旧的奔驰 E-Class
大轿车，月供 748 美元。他说到，购买二手车是他的“新常态”，因新车价格已经变得“有趣”，但是他并未为此感到高兴。
sedan 大轿车
“我从不是二手车买主，因为我认为这是某些人的噩梦，而我不想要。”Levine 说到，他 61 岁，“但是我又做过什么决策呢？”
04 繁荣的、多文化的 Georgia 工厂文化
1.地毯对于 Juan Carlos Fraire 而言是最安全了。他 18 岁的时候，没拿到高中文凭，他开启了一家工厂工作叉车的叉车操作员相关资料，在 Dalton 佐治亚小镇西北部的工厂，这里是世界地板之都。多年来，Fraire 用自己的方式，支持各种行政职位，完成高中学业，这一路来，还顺势拿了 CS 领域的本科学位。现在 43 岁了，他领导了一支队伍，在人力资源部门，在工程师地板公司。大约 1/10 地毯制造商，在这个小镇上有 3.5 万家。“我几乎干所有事情”，他说到。“星期五，星期六，星期日，整个礼拜我都得去学校”。
forklift operator 叉车操作员
floor-covering capital 地板之都
2.Fraire 的成功几乎在 Dalton 独一无二，或者甚至是家庭都是（独一无二）。他的父亲，Emiterio，在 1976 年获得一项工作，开叉车，在 Dalton 地毯厂。在美国工作了 10 多年，在农场。对于 Emiterio，工厂的工作是重复的，非常累人的 —— 相较于其之前的工作来说，是非常轻松的。“我从未做如此多的工作，在采辣椒或者采樱桃方面。”他说到：“我开始工作的时候，12 小时倒班。感觉上像在天堂。”
gig 工作
grueling 非常累人的
3.像 Fraires 这样的人，已然是起重要作用的，关于产生戏剧般的转折上，在 Dalton。20 年前，90分钟的洲际路程，从亚特兰大来的话， —— 冒着失去主要产业的风险，随着地毯厂挣扎着找到工人，以及考虑移到海外。但是，一家新的驻扎 Dalton 公司，撤营潜逃到中国，或者墨西哥。最强的地毯制造商，将小型对手抢购一空，还投资当地的生产。以及长期以来， 拉美的移民是这行业的主要劳动力。
Interstate 洲际的
decamped 撤营潜逃
snapped up 抢购一空
4.如今，拉丁裔组成超过一半的 Dalton 人口，他们代表一个大的份额，关于地毯行业的劳动力。制造商付出了无尽的时间和精力，帮助训练那些雇员 —— 其中很多第二代居民，在美国出生，经常由其他入门行业，例如，研磨工作的监督位置，移到地毯业的流水线。其实，没有如想象的那样，赶走（chase）当地乔治亚人，赶出工厂（mill），致使进入失业人群，他们助力了当地繁荣。
5.但是，Dalton 投票给特朗普，及此人在 2016 年承诺的反移民政策，以及 2020 年大选，Joel 写道。有些人是长期居民，仍然见证了 Dalton ，关于新工人组织的案例，能够带入其社群： 佐治亚的心脏 MAGA：一项移民劳动力兴盛 。
，
untold time and energy 无尽的时间和精力
01 “Bond vigilantes” have eyes on Election Day
The size of the US debt hasn’t been a big issue in the presidential campaign, but it might make a comeback once a
new president is in office. Carter Johnson writes today about what the markets are signaling. Plus: If you haven’
t looked at new-car prices recently, you might be in for a surprise. And in Dalton, Georgia, the carpet industry
relies increasingly on Latinos, migrants and their children.
The term “bond vigilantes” is poised to reenter the lexicon of the Oval Office, no matter who wins the US
presidential election.
The term, coined by bond veteran Ed Yardeni in the 1980s, describes investors who succeeded in forcing governments
and central banks into policy U-turns by pushing the price of bonds down and their yields up. Markets of late have
been remarkably impervious to such hawkish investors—the bond vigilantes—bent on punishing the federal
government for what they see as fiscal excess. That could be changing, with neither Vice President Kamala Harris
nor former President Donald Trump focused on dealing with America’s mountain of debt, Yardeni said in a Bloomberg
Television interview last week as he raised the prospect of the vigilantes’ return.
Fixed income’s terrible performance in October lends credence to this notion. A Bloomberg gauge of US government
bonds saw its worst month in two years, while the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose some 50 basis points.
The market’s plunge is most fundamentally linked to the US economy’s strength causing investors to scale back
expectations that the Federal Reserve will aggressively reduce interest rates this year.
But—but—it’s also tied to the prevalence of the so-called Trump trade.
Investors see more risk of higher deficits and reinflation to follow with a second Trump presidency, due to his
economic policies centered on widespread tax cuts and tariffs. The key consideration with a Trump victory is
whether Republicans capture control of the House and Senate, which would allow him to follow through on a lot of
that fiscal agenda, says Noel Dixon, a macro strategist at State Street Corp. “That’s just uncharted territory,
” Dixon says. The yield on 10-year Treasuries could push beyond 5% in this case, according to Dixon, from about
4.3%.
On Monday, traders pulled back on that view and sent the dollar and bond yields tumbling as they reassessed Trump
’s path to the White House, principally because a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll revealed Harris has a
three-point lead over Trump in the state. Still, the latest polling signals the candidates remain poised for an
exceedingly close finish to the campaign.
The next president can look to the UK for a cautionary tale on the market’s willingness to accept any hint of
government largesse when it comes to deficit spending. Last week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented the governing
Labour Party’s budget to the UK Parliament, including elements of fiscal easing not expected by investors. The
markets for gilts, government bonds issued by the UK Treasury, sharply sold off and reached their weakest levels
in a year. But selling has abated since, and the reaction was altogether sanguine compared with the rollout of
former Prime Minister Liz Truss’ fiasco of a mini-budget two years ago.
The US government does have a critical support mechanism shared by no other sovereign lender in the world: the
status of the greenback as the world’s primary reserve currency. Dollars grease the pipes through which most
global trade and finance is conducted.
The ultimate question, Dixon says, is whether global investors continue to see the US as a safe and reliable place
to do business. “Will we start to see people truly questioning the integrity of our institutions?” he asks.
“That’s a big tail risk. Once the genie is out of the bottle, it’s hard to get back in.”
02 In Brief
1.Quincy Jones, renaissance man of American music, is dead at 91.
2.Deadly fungal outbreaks are on the rise around the world since the Covid-19 pandemic.
3.The age of a typical homebuyer jumped to an all-time high of 56 in the US.
03 Meet the New Used-Car Buyers
Marc Levine was used to leasing a new Mercedes-Benz sport utility vehicle every three years, like clockwork. He
liked driving a new car and not having to worry about maintenance or running out of warranty coverage. But when he
returned to his dealer last year to replace his 2018 GLE 350, he was in for a shock: For the newer version of the
same model, his monthly payment would nearly double, to almost $1,200 from $640.
“Are you kidding me?” Levine, a cardiologist who lives with his family in South Florida, asked his dealer. He
looked at mass-market brands—a Jeep Grand Cherokee and a Toyota Highlander—and the monthly payments on those had
grown close to what he’d paid on his previous Mercedes. So finally he asked: “You got anything pre-
owned?”
And with that, a lifelong new-car buyer joined today’s swelling ranks of used-car buyers. Levine purchased a
three-year-old Mercedes E-Class sedan with a monthly payment of $748. He says buying used is his “new normal,”
because prices on new cars have become “ridiculous,” but he’s not happy about it.
“I was never a used-car buyer, because I just felt like that was somebody else’s nightmare that I didn’t want,
” says Levine, 61. “But what choice did I have?”
04 A Thriving, Multicultural Georgia Factory Town
Carpets have been good to Juan Carlos Fraire. At age 18, lacking even a high school diploma, he started as a
forklift operator at a mill in the northwest Georgia town of Dalton, the floor-covering capital of the world. Over
the years, Fraire worked his way up to various administrative positions, finishing high school and getting a BA in
computer science along the way. Now 43, he leads a team in the human resources department of Engineered Floors
Inc., one of a dozen or so carpet makers in the town of 35,000. “I was kinda doing everything,” he says.
“Friday, Saturday, Sunday at the plant, and throughout the week I went to school.”
Fraire’s success is hardly unique in Dalton—or even in his family. His father, Emiterio, got a job in 1976
driving a forklift at a Dalton carpet plant, after a decade working on farms across the US. For Emiterio the
factory gig was repetitive, grueling—and a total relief compared with what he’d been doing. “I never made so
much picking chiles or cherries,” he says. “I started working 12-hour shifts and felt like I was in heaven.”
People like the Fraires have been instrumental in a dramatic turnaround for Dalton. Two decades ago, the city—90
minutes up Interstate 75 from Atlanta—was at risk of losing its primary industry as the carpet factories
struggled to find workers and considered moving overseas. But while a few Dalton companies decamped to China or
Mexico, the strongest carpet makers snapped up smaller rivals and invested in local production. And over time,
migrants from Latin America became the heart of the workforce.
Today, Latinos make up more than half of Dalton’s population, and they represent a big share of the carpet
industry’s labor force. Manufacturers have spent untold time and energy helping to train those employees—many
second-generation citizens, born in the US—who frequently move up from entry-level millwork to supervisory
positions. Rather than chase native Georgians out of the mills and into the unemployment lines, they’ve helped
the place prosper.
Yet Dalton voted for Donald Trump and his anti-immigrant rhetoric in the 2016 and 2020 elections, writes Joel
Millman. Some longer-term residents still see Dalton as an example of what a new group of workers can bring to a
community: An Immigrant Workforce Thrives in Georgia’s MAGA Heartland
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