发表时间：2025.05.23     作者：Jingyi     来源：ShoelessCai     阅读：20

封面故事：牛肉价格更高了！ Prices are higher for ground beef to make burgers. Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

由 Jingyi 翻译。

译文

随着这个纪念周末，就这么到达我最喜欢的季节。沙滩上的冰激凌、夏天商品、门口的鸡尾酒，并不会比这些更好。有些时候，贸易战侵犯了权威主义即便是天气晴朗，然而谁都知道，大变化在天气晴朗的时候会显得没那么可怕。

但是我是有坏消息的，就像其他人一样，在外面野餐郊游的价格也会在这个夏天上涨，上涨大约 4.21% 依据一家关注食品和农产品的 RaboBank 的数据。你甚至不能责怪关税，一位资深消费者、也是银行在食品板块的分析师 Tom Bailey 说到，因为 90% 用于野餐的来源，来自国内生产。成本上涨原因，就像食品一样，大多数是在家里种植的。

hands-down 轻而易举的
encroaching 侵犯
authoritarianism 权威主义
apocalypse 末世
cookout 在外面野餐郊游

根据计算，RaboBank 菜单包含，一个人，拥有汉堡包包含生菜和番茄的话，一个鸡肉三明治，还有生菜番茄和芝士，两片手掌大小的薯片，两瓶啤酒，一瓶苏打水，一些冰激凌。每个成分都解释了价格上涨的原因，由于对牛肉的高需求，但是牛又不够，牛肉上涨 6.44%。番茄可能上涨 17%，由于美墨之间关系。另一方面，啤酒可能只上涨 3%，由于一系列的原因，包括目前已经国内生产的外国酒，包括 Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Stella Artois（某种酒名），2021 年该酒开始在美国生产，一位饮料分析师 Jame 说到。

Bailey说到，食品通胀因为“结构压力”，而且这种结构已经存在了多年了。2021 年，全球贸易流向已经有所改变，由于新冠疫情的原因，以及地缘政治的紧张。很多食品公司，一些即时的出货可能很危险，而且决定了人们接受了更加的原材料价格，来保证原材料实际到货。最近，Bailey 认为 “美国恢复健康运动”，由健康与人力资源秘书处所发起的。如果执行新法案的话，原材料更加昂贵了。

价格已经在过去几年上升了很多，而且不太可能下降。Kearney 全球食品与农业板块分析师 Rob Dongoski 说到。但是很多公司能够感知，消费者是能感到压力，并希望只是能和通胀和平相处。然而，价格在各个原材料之间产生了差距，就像一层层滤网一样，最终触达到消费者这里。“更少的关税，更高价格的输入”，他说道，包括牛肉、蔗糖、面粉、乳制品。

美国人长期以来，倾向于更少地在家庭食品上开支。这支出平均而言只占据食品支出的 6.8%，低于任何其他国家（这个比例数值），依据美国农业部的数据。（这值得注意：我们也拥有更短的寿命预期，以及发达国家中更高的肥胖率，彭博新闻最近揭示）。现在，Bailey 说到，“问题在于，我们是在食物系统改变的拐点吗？”他还不确定。“目前来讲，只是更多的假设。变化有很多，但是我们不切实地确定，事情如何展现出来？”

inflection point 拐点

原文

With Memorial Day weekend upon us, we’ve arrived at hands-down my favorite season. Ice cream on the beach, summer produce, cocktails on a sunny porch—it doesn’t get much better than that. (Somehow trade wars, encroaching authoritarianism and even a looming climate apocalypse all seem less threatening when the weather is good.)

But I’ve got some bad news: Like so much else, the price of a cookout is expected to go up this summer, by an estimated 4.21%, according to Rabobank, which focuses on the food and agriculture sector. You can’t even blame tariffs, says Tom Bailey, a senior consumer foods analyst at the bank, because 90% of the typical cookout menu is sourced domestically. The reasons behind the cost increases, like the food, are mostly homegrown.

For its calculation, Rabobank’s menu included, per person, one cheeseburger with lettuce and tomato; one chicken sandwich with lettuce, tomato and a slice of cheese; two handfuls of chips; two beers; a soda; and some ice cream. Each ingredient comes with its own set of price-increasing explanations: Ground beef is expected to be up 6.44% thanks to a record low cattle herd coinciding with high demand. Tomatoes could rise almost 17% because the US—to the delight of Florida tomato growers—withdrew from a tomato-related trade agreement with Mexico. Beer, on the other hand, will be up only about 3% for a number of reasons, including that some formerly foreign beers are now made domestically, including Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Stella Artois, which started US production in 2021, says James Watson, a beverage analyst at the bank.

Bailey says food inflation is driven by “structural pressures” that have been building for years: In 2021 global trade flows changed thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions. Many food companies learned that just-in-time shipping could be risky and decided they’d accept some higher ingredient costs to ensure the ingredients actually arrive. More recently, Bailey says the Make America Healthy Again movement, led by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, is another force that could change the way food is made, making it more expensive if new regulations are enacted.

Prices that went up over the past several years aren’t likely to come down, says Rob Dongoski, the global lead for food and agribusiness at consulting firm Kearney, but companies can see that consumers are feeling the stress and hope to just stay in line with inflation. Still, price spikes on ingredients will likely filter down to the consumer eventually. “It’s less tariffs, just more of the costs of inputs,” he says, listing beef, sugar, flour and dairy as examples.

Americans have long enjoyed spending very little on food consumed at home; they currently average just 6.8% of their income on such meals, the lowest share of any country, according to the US Department of Agriculture. (It should be noted: We also have a shorter life expectancy and some of the highest obesity rates of most developed countries, as Bloomberg News recently wrote.) Now, Bailey says, “The question is, are we at an inflection point in the food system that things are changing?” He can’t say yet for sure. “There’s just a lot of what-ifs right now. There’s a lot of change, and we’re not sure exactly how things are going to line up.”

长按/扫码，有您的支持，我们会更加努力！