近期股市

周经历了震荡市场，尽管遥远的美国状况并不如此。（Chinese markets endured a notbale jolt this week, albeit a far cry from what unfolded in America.)

华盛顿监管者还在与一场GameStop（一家电子游戏零售商）的股价飙升事件斗争，而北京的政策制定者也在挣扎如何软启动关于震荡市场的紧急预案（how to tip toe away from emergency settings without jolting markets)。

经济活动再一次复苏，在中国能够非常有效地控制住新冠疫情之后。不仅仅是因为中国主要经济在2020年看到了有效回升，更是由于中国预期今年将增长8% （从图片资料看是GDP增长8%）。

随着经济复苏，中央银行预期，会考虑采取刺激政策，应对新冠疫情的影响。这些未来举措将给中国的金融市场处于边缘（left Chinese financial markets on edge）。

而人们的担忧是，这种市场的紧张来的太快了。（由于）抽取在疫情期间注入金融系统的钱，将会使资产价格迅速跳水。而这一现象在本周已经显现，让人们非常担心。

这一担忧，起源于一位人行的咨询师 Ma Jun 的评论，，当其被问及关于未来政策方向的想法，他表示，北京需要考虑股权及资本市场的泡沫风险。

他的评论，在周二被当地媒体报道，使得人们对于央行撤回刺激政策所带来的影响比预期更早发生。让本次市场震荡加剧的是（Compounding the situation was ..)，同一天央行决定通过不展期（原本预期会展期的）贷款的方式，从市场抽回资金。

结果就是一场紧急抛售（the result was a selloff）。中国标的股指也见证了近四个月以来的当日跌幅的最高纪录。由于来自大陆的资金，香港市场前段时间有所恢复，即使如此，也在当天创下8个月以来的跌幅纪录。

官方试图缓和市场焦虑情绪（allay concerns），央行行长易纲，宣称不会过早地推出刺激政策（'prematurely' exit stimulus），几个小时前，他刚于发布会发言（用Google纠正了时态）。第二天一早，一家国有金融日报，《证券时报》，在头条上称，不用担心。

刺激政策至少部分有效。大陆股票市场周三维持了微薄的收益，香港市场也只滑落了0.3%。

然而，央行于周三再一次抽回资金，这一举措持续撑开（continued to a spike in the interest rate）中国银行间隔夜拆借利率。

即便中国市场没能理解央行的意图，那么，周四官方再一次向金融资本市场抽回资金，这已经是第三波操作，市场参与者似乎下定决心。（矫正逻辑关系）

中国大陆及香港股票市场跳水，金融机构之间的隔夜拆借利率飙升（shot up even more），交易员称，银行已经开始不愿意相互给出大额贷款了。

央行周五开始停止抽取流动性，转而开始向市场注入资金。即便如此，中国几乎可以肯定已经停止了刺激政策。如果不这么做，会引起许多经济隐患。因此，停止刺激政策只是时间和节奏的问题。

Feeling Them Out 相互试探

上周，10余架中国军用飞机飞至台湾海峡，距离 Joe Biden 上任还不超过一周。北京的目的是什么？新的美国政府应该理解，中国关于台湾主权问题，是中美外交的红线，不可逾越。这是NUS（新加坡国立大学）关于东亚国际关系研究的助理教授，Yongwook Ryu的言论，这位助理教授也释放了一些信号，表示中美双边正在相互试探（feel each other out）。

这一行为确实起作用。本周的世界经济论坛上，中国方面称，要消除’意识形态偏见’（Ideological Prejudice），并警告没有任何国家可以将其制度系统强加于他国。这也回应了北京长久以来的、与美国谈判的立场，即美国的期望，不可能完全改变中国体系。

与此同时，Biden 也表示美国将致力于维护’尚未被定夺’的小岛，该问题也是中国与日本之间关系紧张的来源，在北京与日本首相吉秀佳彦（Yoshihide Suga）通话之后。新上任的美国国务卿 Antony Blinken相应地，延续了美国外交国家的通话，包括菲律宾、澳大利亚、泰国。美国长期以来对中国表达这样的观点，美国把自己看成太平洋管理者（Pacific power），而北京对世界的期望不会让美国撤回武力（America sees itself as a Pacific power and that Beijing's expections cannot be for Washington to withdraw its forces）。

TikTok Money 抖音点石成金

只需关注 ByteDance（字节跳动）的走势，就能知道这家拥有抖音（一个视频软件）的北京公司在2020年是多么喧嚣。公开新闻揭示了，本周这家公司的净利润（operating profit）增加近70亿美金，而该公司2019年财报揭露营业利润不足40亿美金。营业收入增加至350亿美金，是2018年财报数字的4倍。

这些财报上的数字显示，抖音已然成为多么显著的现象，但是他们仍然对其未来的挑战和问题有所反应。其中最主要的问题是，前总统的遗留问题，即禁止抖音在美国传播，现在这个问题需要Biden接手解决，要么禁止，要么通行。与此同时，印度方面没有任何迹象表明会停止对抖音的禁令，该禁令2020年中期执行。这使得抖音在本周宣布，他们将减少在印度的工作。然而，至少对抖音来说前尚未成为问题，特别是字节跳动正在准备将其在香港的业务上市。对于已经上市的稍小的竞争对手快手而言，似乎也热情高涨，他们认为，抖音这次资本运作，将促使类似的交易发生（will prompt a similarly favorable reception）。

Zero Tolorence 疫情零容忍

中国对新冠疫情可谓是零容忍，，不仅是世界上最早实行封城控制疫情的国家（该举措之后被世界诸多国家采纳），近期也对进口的冷冻食品，实施非常严格的监管。甚至让媒体担忧，鉴于中国是食品消费大国，中国对于进口食品的严格管控，可能会影响到船运行业。

上述由彭博新闻提供素材，李静怡翻译，谷歌翻译校对。

Bloomberg News 202102

Chinese markets endured a notable jolt this week, albeit a far cry from what unfolded in America.

While regulators in Washington were grappling with the feverish surge in shares of GameStop, policy makers in Beijing were struggling with how to tip toe away from emergency settings without jolting markets.

Economic activity has come roaring back after China was able to largely contain the coronavirus within its borders. Not only was it the sole major economy to see expansion in 2020, but China is forecast to grow more than 8% this year.

With recovery underway, the central bank has signaled that it’s thinking about exiting some of the stimulus measures put in place to counter the effects of Covid-19. That’s left Chinese financial markets on edge.

The concern is that done too quickly, draining the money injected into the financial system during the crisis will spark a sharp drop in asset prices. It was a worry that played out dramatically this week.

It began with comments by Ma Jun, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China, who told a symposium that Beijing needed to consider the risk of bubbles in the equity and property markets when thinking about the future direction of policy.

His comments, reported by local media Tuesday, triggered worries the withdrawal of stimulus could come sooner than expected. Compounding the situation was the PBOC’s decision that same day to pull money from the financial system by not rolling over loans it had extended previously to banks.

The result was a selloff. China’s benchmark stock index saw its biggest one-day decline in almost four months. In Hong Kong, where a flood of money from the mainland had fueled a recent rally, shares fell by the most in eight months.

Authorities tried to allay concerns. PBOC Governor Yi Gang, speaking on a previously scheduled panel a few hours later, pledged not to “prematurely” exit stimulus. The next morning’s Securities Times, one of China’s most prominent state-owned financial dallies, argued on its front page that there was no need to worry.

It appeared to work, at least partly. Stocks on the mainland eked out a small gain on Wednesday, while in Hong Kong they slid by just a third of a percent.

But the central bank also drained money once more on Wednesday, which contributed to a spike in the interest rates Chinese banks charge one another for overnight loans.

If markets were unsure about the PBOC’s intentions then, they appeared to make up their minds Thursday after authorities pulled money from the financial system for a third consecutive day.

Stocks on the mainland and in Hong Kong plunged. The cost to borrow money overnight for financial institutions shot up even more, with traders saying that banks had become unwilling to offer large loans to each other.

The PBOC appeared to give some ground Friday, injecting funds instead of draining cash. Even still, China is almost certainly headed toward some exit of stimulus. Not doing so would risk a slew of economic ills. The questions, of course, are when and how quickly.

Feeling Them Out

More than a dozen Chinese military aircraft flew into the Taiwan Strait last weekend, not a week into Joe Biden’s presidency. Beijing’s aim? The new American administration should understand that China’s claims of sovereignty over the island are a red line the U.S. must not cross. That’s according to Yongwook Ryu, an assistant professor of East Asian international relations at National University of Singapore, who added more signal-sending is likely as the two sides try to feel each other out.

Signals were indeed sent. In addressing the World Economic Forum by video this week, President Xi Jinping called for “ideological prejudice” to be abandoned and warned that no country should force its system onto others. That echoes Beijing’s long-held position in its negotiations with Washington that American expectations cannot be for a wholesale change of the Chinese system.

Biden, meanwhile, affirmed the U.S.’s commitment to defend uninhabited islands that have been a source of tensions between Beijing and Tokyo during a call with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Newly confirmed Secretary of State Antony Blinken likewise reiterated American alliances in calls with his counterparts from the Philippines, Australia and Thailand. The U.S. has long expressed to China that America sees itself as a Pacific power and that Beijing’s expectations cannot be for Washington to withdraw its forces.

The boundaries appear to be getting drawn quickly and clearly.

TikTok Money

Looking only at ByteDance’s financials, it’d be easy to miss how tumultuous a year 2020 was for the Beijing-based owner of the TikTok video app. It was revealed this week that the company’s operating profit jumped to about $7 billion last year from less than $4 billion in 2019. Revenue surged to $35 billion, quadruple what it was in 2018.

While those numbers underline how big a phenomenon TikTok has become, they also belie the challenges ahead. Chief among those is former U.S. President Donald Trump’s as-yet-unresolved bid to ban the app in America, an effort that is now up to Biden to either continue or stop. India, meanwhile, has shown no sign of rescinding its own ban on TikTok imposed in mid-2020. That led TikTok this week to announce that it’s reducing its workforce in India. But at least money won’t be a worry, especially with ByteDance exploring an initial public offering for some of its businesses in Hong Kong. The enthusiasm with which investors have taken to the IPO of smaller rival Kuaishou Technology would suggest ByteDance’s sale will prompt a similarly favorable reception.

Zero Tolerance

China’s campaign to neutralize the coronavirus within its borders has been unique in Beijing’s willingness to deploy resources and powers that wouldn’t be viable or even countenanced in many other countries. A year ago, the decision to lock down the city of Wuhan shocked the world, though since then the practice has spread across the globe. China has also been alone in its insistence on testing imports of frozen food, arguing such shipments may be contaminated and infect those who handle the freight. The measures are so strict and China is such a large market for food that the impact is rippling across the global shipping industry.

What’s more, Beijing’s zero-tolerance strategy for dealing with the coronavirus has seen China employ more-invasive testing measures that other countries have not. Residents in some northern regions, for example, have been asked to undergo anal swabs recently as authorities try to root out a recent outbreak. But for all the criticism this strategy has engendered, it is hard to argue with the results.